Majority says federal prosecutors have strong case against Trump in Jan. 6 probe: poll

A majority of voters see the potential Jan. 6 case against former President Donald Trump as strong and a reason for him to drop out of the race for the GOP nomination for president in 2024, according to a new poll.

The Harvard University CAPS/Harris Poll showed that 57 percent of registered voters said the federal case against Trump in the investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election is “very strong” or “somewhat strong.” That includes 87 percent of Democrats, 47 percent of independents and 31 percent of Republicans. 

A plurality, 42 percent, believe Trump is likely guilty of the potential charges he could be facing for his involvement in the efforts to overturn the election, while 37 percent said he is likely innocent and should not be charged. A fifth said he might be guilty of the charges he could face but should not be indicted because the charges would be “too political” and interfere with the 2024 election. 

The results come after Trump revealed last week that he received a letter from the Justice Department informing him that he is a target of the investigation. Trump was given four days to decide whether to appear before the grand jury that special counsel Jack Smith has organized for the case. 

The letter could indicate that a charging decision on Trump is close. 

A slight majority — 55 percent — said a third indictment, which would be the second federal one, filed against Trump is a reason for him to withdraw from the 2024 race, while 45 percent said he should continue running. More than 80 percent of Democrats said the indictment would be a reason to drop out, as did half of independents and 3 in 10 Republicans. 

Trump has already been indicted in the hush money case over payments that ex-Trump attorney Michael Cohen made to adult film star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet an alleged affair between her and Trump, and in the case concerning the classified and sensitive documents found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property. 

Trump has continued to hold a large lead in the Republican primary polls over his challengers despite the indictments against him and even saw a slight increase in his numbers in some polls following the indictments. 

Pollsters found 56 percent of respondents said they expect an additional indictment against Trump would hurt him politically. 

Nearly two-thirds of voters, including 55 percent of Republicans, said Trump actively tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, but 56 percent said they expect he will be acquitted if he is charged. 

“I think a well detailed Jan 6th indictment will not be like the other Trump indictment — the public could react quite strongly against Trump if this indictment has new information, according to the poll,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. “This represents real danger to a Trump candidacy.”

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll was conducted from July 19-20 and surveyed 2,068 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. 

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.