Cook Political Report moves three House races toward Democrats, two toward GOP

The Cook Political Report shifted its forecasts in five House district races in an analysis published Thursday, moving three seats toward Democrats and two seats toward Republicans. 

The Cook Political Report moved two Republican districts — Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) and Rep. Ken Calvert’s (R-Calif.) — from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” The third district that moved in Democrats’ favor is represented by Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), whose district moved from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”

The two districts shifted in Republicans’ favor are represented by Democrats: Rep. Josh Harder’s (D-Calif.) district moved from “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat,” and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s (D-Texas) district moved from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

Still, Cook Political Report editor David Wasserman said the effort by the National Republican Congressional Committee to “turn the tide” on the Democratic advantage in “hard” money donations, rather than Super PAC funds, is “paying off” — at least according to campaign finance disclosures from the second quarter. 

Cook Political Report lists 34 Republicans with a degree of vulnerability — which includes those with “lean” and “toss-up” ratings. Only four of those 34 Republicans raised less than their leading Democratic opponent: Reps. George Santos (R-N.Y.), David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Boebert.

“It helps that Republicans are now the incumbents in many of the ‘battleground’ seats and have ramped up their own political operations quickly,” Wasserman said, adding that, still, “At this stage in the cycle, that cash can be an effective deterrent against strong opponents jumping in.”

Only 12 of the 34 vulnerable Republicans had at least one Democratic opponent with at least $200,000 in the bank, Wasserman said. And of the 18 Republicans representing districts that Biden won, only eight have a Democratic opponent with $200,000 in the bank. 

Big-name Democrats waited until early July, the start of the third quarter, to announce their campaigns, so, Wasserman noted, “The third quarter promises to be more telling.”

A closer look at the individual races that Cook Political Report shifted this week sheds additional insight on the state of the 2024 House races and how close they are likely to be:

Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.)

Likely Democrat (Previously: Solid Democrat)

Harder’s district moved toward the GOP after Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, which Cook Political Report describes as Republicans’ “dream candidate,” entered the race this week. According to the analysis, he is a Black and Latino veteran who served on Marine One during the Bush administration and has worked at a Silicon Valley security firm and as an executive pastor of a church in Stockton. He represents almost half of Harder’s district as mayor of Stockton. 

Harder, however, is a strong fundraiser, according to Cook Political Report, and represents a district that Biden won by 13 points in the 2020 election. 

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.)

Toss up (Previously: Lean Republican)

Calvert faces a rematch with former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who lost to Calvert 52 percent to 48 percent in 2022. The recent redistricting has made the district represent more liberal areas. Rollins, a strong fundraiser, would be among the first openly gay men from California to serve in Congress.

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.)

Toss up (Previously: Lean Republican)

Boebert faces a rematch, too, with Aspen Councilman Adam Frisch, who lost to Boebert by a mere 546 votes in 2022. He raised more than three times what Boebert did in the second quarter, raising $2.6 million. Cook Political Report said Boebert has not taken steps to moderate her views, and Frisch is presenting himself as a moderate option to the Trump ally. 

Still, according to Cook’s analysis, the race will be decided by the roughly 80,000 voters who did not show up to vote in the midterms, and Wasserman assessed that those mostly independent voters “may be more open to Donald Trump than those who showed up in the midterms.”

Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio)

Lean Democrat (Previously: Toss-up)

Landsman’s district represents the Biden-friendly Cincinnati area. While the U.S. Supreme Court’s order for the Ohio high court to revisit the state’s congressional lines, some believe that move will prompt the conservative majority on Ohio’s top court to reverse its previous ruling and keep current lines, according to Cook Political Report.

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas)

Lean Democrat (Previously: Likely Democrat)

Gonzalez faces a rematch with former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores, who was elected in a special election and then defeated a few months later in November after redistricting made her chances more slim. While the revamped district still would have voted for Biden, according to Cook Political Report, the margins are slimmer, meaning it is likely for the race to be competitive, at least.