Cook Political Report shifts Boebert race to ‘toss-up’

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report announced Thursday it was shifting its rating of Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) competitive House district race from “lean Republican” to “toss up.”

Cook Political Report editor David Wasserman said the change in the rating comes after recent campaign finance disclosures revealed Boebert’s challenger raised more than three times what Boebert raised in the second quarter. 

Boebert, a conservative firebrand, faces what was already sure to be a high-stakes rematch with former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, a Democrat who lost to Boebert in 2022 by a mere 546 votes. The close race triggered an automatic recount, but Frisch conceded to Boebert before the recount was complete. 

In the latest second quarter campaign filings, covering the months of April through June, Frisch raised an impressive $2.6 million, which is more than three times Boebert’s roughly $818,000. 

Frisch’s campaign said earlier this month that his second-quarter fundraising numbers broke the record “for the largest quarterly fundraising for a U.S. House challenger in the year before an election, excluding special elections and self-funded campaigns.”

In the first quarter, too, Frisch outraised Boebert. He raised $1.7 million, according to his finance disclosure, and Boebert raised about $764,000. 

Wasserman noted that the shift in the district’s rating comes as Boebert has not made any clear attempt to moderate her positions; Frisch presents himself as the moderate alternative to the Trump ally. 

“Not only has Boebert avoided taking any steps to moderate her image since coming within 546 votes of losing to former Aspen Councilman Adam Frisch in 2022, Frisch outraised her by a massive $2.6 million to $810,000 in the second quarter thanks to an avalanche of small-dollar donations,” Wasserman wrote in his analysis, adding that Boebert’s recent charge to block the annual defense reauthorization bill over social wedge issues is likely to give Frisch leverage. 

Wasserman noted, however, that despite his strong fundraising figures, Frisch still has a difficult battle ahead, as national Republican groups will no longer give Frisch “a free pass” and instead, “likely to invest heavily to redefine the self-styled moderate as a limousine liberal out of step with the Western Slope.”

Wasserman also said the 2024 race is likely to be determined by the 80,000 voters who did not vote in the 2022 midterms and who skew independent. Wasserman said they “may be more open to Donald Trump than those who showed up in the midterms.” 

The Cook Political Report analysis moved four other races along with Boebert’s this week. Rep. Josh Harder’s (D-Calif.) district moved from “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat,” and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s (D-Texas) district moved from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

Rep. Ken Calvert’s (R-Calif.) district moved from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” and Rep. Greg Landsman’s (D-Ohio) district moved from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”