Election Countdown: Midterm fight heats up over Kavanaugh | McConnell sees energized base | Dems look to women to retake House | How suburban voters could decide control of Congress | Taylor Swift backs Tennessee Dems | Poll shows Cruz up 5 in Texas

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We’re 29 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 757 days until the 2020 elections.

 

Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court on Saturday closed out a tumultuous chapter in the Senate. As for the midterms, its effects are still being felt.

Less than a month before Election Day, Kavanaugh’s placement on the high court is driving the fight for the House and Senate in different directions. In the battle for the House, it could increase the chances of a “blue wave,” especially in must-win suburban districts where Republicans are already struggling to win over female voters.

 

But the confirmation could also help boost Republicans running for Senate seats in red states currently held by Democrats. President Trump and congressional Republicans are looking to weaponize the confirmation fight in the final month of the midterms. In North Dakota, for example, the GOP pounced on Sen. Heidi Heitkamp‘s (D) decision to vote against Kavanaugh, casting it as a sign that she’s out of touch with her state.

{mosads}”I talked to a couple of my political advisers yesterday and this has been a shot in the arm for us going into the fall election because it underscores the importance of the Senate and our role in personnel, and of course the most important personnel decisions we make are the courts, and particularly the Supreme Court,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told The Hill in an interview.

 

Whether Kavanaugh’s confirmation continues to reverberate through Election Day remains to be seen. Strategists suggest that Republicans may be less inclined to cast their ballots in November, having gotten what they wanted from the GOP-controlled Senate. And that outrage among Democrats could prompt more of them to turn out.

“If the Republicans thought they had a problem before, they have an earthquake now,” Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist, told The Hill’s Max Greenwood.

 

Race for the White House

Less than 30 days until the midterms, the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is already underway, reports The Hill’s Amie Parnes. Potential White House hopefuls are traveling around the country to give 2018 candidates a boost. Here’s a rundown of their campaign schedule:

Former Vice President Joe Biden will travel to Indiana on Friday to campaign with Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.). Biden will also campaign with retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, who’s running against Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.).

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was in Ohio over the weekend to campaign with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Richard Cordray and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). She’ll also travel to Arizona to help Rep. Kyrsten Sinema‘s Senate campaign and Wisconsin for Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J) was in Des Moines, Iowa on Saturday night headlining the party’s annual fall gala, the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) are both headed to Georgia to campaign with Georgia gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. Former Attorney General Eric Holder was in Georgia on Sunday for Abrams and is heading to North Carolina on Monday.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick will campaign with Democrat Josh Welle, who is challenging 19-term Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.). And Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), who’s announced his presidential campaign, will make appearances in Texas.

 

Senate showdown

In the wake of Kavanaugh’s confirmation fight, Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) rebuked the #MeToo movement in a weekend interview with The New York Times, calling it a “movement toward victimization.”

“That you’re just supposed to believe somebody because they said it happened,” Cramer told the Times. He then referenced women in his family, saying “they cannot understand this movement toward victimization.”

Cramer is running against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), who gave an emotional rebuttal to the congressman’s description of the movement. She referenced her own work with victims and noted that her mother was a victim of sexual assault as a teenager.

“I think it’s wonderful that his wife has never had an experience, and good for her, and it’s wonderful his mom hasn’t,” Heitkamp told the Times. “My mom did. And I think it affected my mom her whole life. And it didn’t make her less strong.”

 

Meanwhile, in other Kavanaugh fallout: Former National Security Adviser Susan Rice elicited a strong response over Twitter when she responded “me” to former White House Communications Director Jen Psaki‘s tweet asking, “Who wants to run for Senate in Maine? There will be an army of supporters with you.”

Rice later walked it back, saying she was “not making any announcements.” She told The New Yorker on Sunday that she’s been “moved by the enthusiasm” expressed by Democrats about a possible run against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), saying she’ll give it “due consideration.”

 

And in pop culture/political news, Taylor Swift broke her silence on politics to endorse former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen(D) over Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) in the race to replace outgoing Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.). She wrote in an Instagram post on Sunday: “As much as I have in the past and would like to continue voting for women in office, I cannot support Marsha Blackburn. I will be voting for Phil Bredesen for Senate and Jim Cooper for House of Representatives.”

 

Survey says…

A series of new CBS News/YouGov polls delivered some bad news for Democrats in two red-states they’re hoping to flip in November. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is leading Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) by a 6-point margin in the race for the Senate in Texas. And in Tennessee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) carries an 8-point lead over Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R).

While the Senate races in both those states are competitive, they’re considered longer shots for Democrats to flip than in states like Nevada and Arizona.

 

Speaking of Arizona, the CBS News/YouGov poll shows Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) ahead of Rep. Martha McSally (R) in the state’s hotly contested Senate race. According to the survey, Sinema leads McSally 47 percent to 44 percent. But that’s still within the poll’s 3.9 percent margin of error, meaning the race remains highly competitive.

 

And in deep-blue New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has a solid lead over his Republican challenger Bob Hugin, according to the poll. He’s leading Hugin 49 percent to 39 percent. Those results are a bit of good news for Democrats, coming amid reports that Menendez’s re-election might not be as much of a shoo-in as once thought.

 

Paper chase

We keep seeing some massive House fundraising hauls and Democratic Senate candidates are also announcing some eye-popping numbers. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who’s running against Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) said she raised nearly $7.1 million in the third fundraising quarter, which runs from July to September. She ended September with $2.6 million in the bank.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who’s been one of the top Senate fundraisers this cycle, raised more than $6 million in the third quarter, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. She ended September with more than $5 million cash on hand. Baldwin faces Republican state Sen. Leah Vukmir in November.

 

Liberal groups are withholding support from Democrats who either voted or supported Kavanaugh’s nomination. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who’s running for reelection in a state that Trump won by 40 points, is the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh. And former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), who’s running for an open seat against Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) said that he supported his confirmation.

MoveOn, a progressive outside group, said Friday it cancelled a planned six-figure digital ad for Bredesen and is pulling “all planned campaigning” for Manchin. The decision comes after Democratic super PAC, Priorities USA Action, said it won’t spend resources on either Democrat, though it hadn’t yet spent money on Bredesen. Senate Majority PAC, however, told the Washington Examiner that it’s still standing by both Democrats.

 

What we’re watching for

Senate Debate schedule:

–Monday night debates in Indiana (7 p.m. ET) and Wisconsin (7 p.m. ET)

–Friday night debate in Wisconsin

–Sunday night debates in West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan

 

Trump rally schedule:

–Tuesday rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa at 7:30 p.m. ET

–Wednesday rally in Erie, Pa. at 7 p.m. ET

–Friday rally in Lebanon, Ohio at 7 p.m. ET

–Saturday rally in Richmond, Ky. at 7 p.m. ET

 

Coming to a TV near you

Abortion-rights advocacy group NARAL Pro-Choice America is launching a $1 million ad campaign seizing on Democratic outrage over Kavanaugh’s confirmation. The TV and digital ads will go after top-targeted GOP districts, including those held by Reps. David Young (Iowa), Peter Roskam (Ill.), Kevin Yoder (Kan.), Claudia Tenney (N.Y.), John Culberson (Texas), Jason Lewis (Minn.) and Dave Brat (Va.).

 

The National Republican Congressional Committee launched a new digital ad mocking Democrat Donna Shalala, who’s running for retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen‘s (R-Fla.) seat, arguing that she lacks the same energy of her Republican opponent Maria Elvira Salazar.

 

Wave watch

While Democrats face a tough battle in the Senate, they’re feeling much more confident about flipping the House–particularly in the wake of the Kavanaugh confirmation fight.

Republicans are claiming heightened enthusiasm, but it’s unclear if it’ll last throughout the next 30 days. And when it comes to the battle of the House, the confirmation battle appears likely to hurt Republicans with suburban female voters in toss-up races that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

“This is going to mean that we win more Dem seats than we would have without this. This is absolutely going to help us in the House,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), vice-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told The Hill’s Melanie Zanona.

“These independent women who are so critical will sit it out and just not vote, which will help Democrats, or they will come out and vote for a Democrat.”

The Hill’s Reid Wilson breaks down the types of suburban districts that are critical parts of the House battlefield. Of the 64 competitive GOP-held seats on the Cook Political Report, 42 are classified as suburban by the researchers David Montgomery and Richard Florida at CityLab.