DeSantis faces potential make-or-break moment with first GOP debate

Ron DeSantis faces a crucial moment with next month’s first GOP primary debate coming amid signs he’s failing to gain traction against former President Trump.

The Florida governor has signaled he will participate in the debate, which will be held in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, even as Trump threatens to skip it.

Whether or not the former president attends, the debate stands to be a critical test for DeSantis, who has faced criticism for his sometimes-stilted style, his failure to connect with voters and his reluctance to directly attack his opponents.

“The debate is more important for Ron DeSantis than any of the other candidates,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who served as communications on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential bid.

“He’s the candidate with the most questions swirling about him,” he continued. “He is second in the polls, which as I know from my experience with Rubio, it’s often the hardest position to be in. He’s going to be taking it from Trump and every other candidate on the stage.”

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump leads DeSantis 52.6 percent to 21 percent. The Florida governor has also been dogged by a number of bad headlines, including a glitch-filled campaign rollout on Twitter and a video attacking Trump over his support of LGBTQ+ people.

DeSantis’s allies contend that the governor’s current standing in the polls is the result of him lagging in name ID behind the former president, and that viewership and subsequent coverage of a first presidential primary debate could alleviate that.

“Most of voters are not paying attention to the 2024 presidential race, and so when there is an event or debate where most of the candidates — if not all of the candidates — are on stage and debating each other, that’s going to attract a lot of eyeballs,” said Justin Sayfie, a Florida Republican strategist.

Fox News, which is hosting the first debate, garnered nearly 24 million viewers during the first GOP primary debate in 2015.

But right now, the debate itself is being overshadowed by the question of whether Trump will even participate.

“The world is Donald Trump’s oyster when it comes to debate strategy and what he wants to do. He can choose to debate, he can choose not to debate,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based Republican strategist. “He can choose to even conceivably leverage the rules in his favor, or even at the same time run his own town hall because when it comes to the GOP debates, he’s the prime-time attraction.”

On Tuesday, Trump’s campaign spokesperson Jason Miller told “The Hill” on NewsNation that it was “unlikely” that the former president would participate in the first debate.

“So ultimately, President Trump will make a decision as we get closer. He has not said anything definitive, one way or the other. I’m not expecting him to participate, though,” Miller said.

On Wednesday, DeSantis himself called on Trump to participate. 

“Nobody is entitled to this nomination. You have got to earn the nomination, and doing things like The Family Leader event in Iowa, doing things like these debates,” he said on Howie Carr’s radio show. “Every candidate needs to be put to the test, and I think he needs to step up and do it.”

DeSantis’s campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo said in a separate statement to The Hill: “Trump couldn’t even beat Joe Biden in a debate, no wonder he’s afraid of Ron DeSantis.”

There is precedent for Trump not showing up to primary debates. The former president skipped the last debate before the Iowa caucuses in 2016 amid tension between him and then-Fox News host Megyn Kelly. The move was met with criticism, with many Republicans at the time arguing that Trump was depriving Iowa caucus-goers of their last time to see him before the contests. While Trump lost the Iowa Caucuses in 2016, he went on to win the nomination.

And this week, Trump declined to participate in the Family Leader Republican presidential forum in Iowa on Friday due to a scheduling conflict. Instead, Trump will head to Florida this weekend where he will headline the Turning Point Action’s young voter conference. He will also participate in a town hall with Fox News host Sean Hannity in the Hawkeye State on Tuesday.

“He made his tough-guy move by not showing up to the Iowa forum,” said New Hampshire House Majority Leader Jason Osborne (R), who has endorsed DeSantis. “He’s not going to want to stay away from that debate. He can’t stand for 12 other people to stand on that stage talking about him.”

Yet Trump’s decision on whether or not to attend isn’t expected to impact DeSantis’s decision.

“You know that Ron knows he’s in trouble, because Ron said, ‘I’m going to do the debates no matter what Trump does,’” said one Republican strategist. “That speaks more to other people nipping at Ron’s heels than it does to DeSantis nipping at Trump’s heels.”

Some DeSantis allies doubt the wisdom of taking part if Trump decides to skip.

“The question is whether he should even participate if Trump doesn’t show,” said Dan Eberhart, a DeSantis donor. “If he’s the big fish on the debate stage, everyone will have no choice but to train their fire on him. That only serves Trump.”

Others argue that if Trump does decide to participate, he’ll inadvertently end up elevating DeSantis by focusing his energy on him.

“It’s a strategic question for the Trump campaign, how they want to handle DeSantis,” Sayfie said. “If they attack him, they elevate him. If they ignore him, they allow him to shine.”

But there are reasons beyond Trump for DeSantis allies to be concerned about the debate. The Florida governor has been the subject of critical coverage for his occasional awkward soundbites, as well as allegations that he’s unlikable.

And his most recent debate performance, when he was running for reelection for governor last year, was not without its awkward moments. Perhaps most memorably, DeSantis generated headlines when he repeatedly refused to answer his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist’s question on whether he would commit to a full term if reelected. Regardless, DeSantis swept to victory later in November.

Political observers may have gotten their closest look yet at how DeSantis will approach the debate when footage was leaked last May from debate prep for his 2018 gubernatorial run. The video, in which he preps answers with Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R), showed him grappling with how to deal with questions about his disagreements with then-President Trump, who endorsed DeSantis that year.

Of course, the dynamic between the two men is different now, with Trump training most of his ire on the Florida governor. But DeSantis will still have to contend with appealing to the same group of voters, many of whom are signaling they want another four years of Trump.

“I like to talk to my members about the difference between how we argue with our enemies versus how we argue with our friends,” said Osborne, who elevated to New Hampshire House majority leader in 2020. “In a primary, you’re arguing with our friends, so you’ve got to try to keep it clean.”

“The problem when you have a guy like Trump, who’s a little more ‘locker room’ in his flavor, it has a tendency to send people off over the edge,” he continued. “DeSantis is just as much of an insult comic as Trump is, but he’s more like William Shakespeare whereas Trump is like Triumph the Dog Puppet.”

DeSantis’s supporters also say he’ll have his record as governor, which was nonexistent in 2018, to stand on this time around.

“He has a bulletproof track record and a vision to turn this country around,” said Dave Vasquez, the spokesman for the pro-DeSantis PAC Never Back Down. “From securing parent’s rights in education and standing up to the woke mob, to leading Florida’s economic growth, Gov. Ron DeSantis isn’t afraid to make his case directly to voters. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are afraid of standing on the stage next to Governor DeSantis.”

DeSantis allies acknowledge that the governor will have a target on his back regardless of whether Trump is on stage or not. They also say that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

“There’s no such thing as bad publicity,” Osborne said.