Internal poll shows Coffman in dead heat with Democratic challenger

Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) is in a statistical dead heat with his Democratic challenger Jason Crow, according to an internal poll commissioned by Coffman’s campaign.

The poll, conducted by the Alexandria, Va.-based Tarrance Group, shows Crow leading Coffman by 1 point – 46-45 percent — in a two-way matchup. That’s well within the survey’s 4.9-percent margin of error.

Crow’s lead increases to 2 points when a Libertarian candidate is thrown into the mix, according to the survey.

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The internal survey of 400 registered voters, which was conducted from Sept. 11-13, paints a markedly different picture of the race for Colorado’s 6th District than other recent surveys. 

One poll conducted by Normington Petts for the group End Citizens United and shared with The Hill on Monday shows Crow leading Coffman 49 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent of respondents undecided. 

That was largely in line with a recent New York Times/Siena College poll that put Crow ahead by 11 points. 

Coffman is among the most vulnerable House Republicans this cycle. He’s fighting to hold onto his seat in a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 by nearly 9 points. 

Crow, a former Army Ranger, was recruited to run as part of an effort by national Democrats to get more veterans on their tickets. He served three combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and later sat on the Colorado Board of Veterans Affairs.

But Coffman, who has served in the House since 2009, has overcome tough re-election bids in the past. In 2016, another internal poll conducted by the Tarrance Group showed Coffman leading by 1 point. He went on to win re-election that year by about 8 points.

“The reports of Mike Coffman’s demise are greatly exaggerated,” Tyler Sandberg, Coffman’s campaign manager, said. 

Coffman has been helped in recent days by $600,000 in spending by the National Association of Realtors and an announcement last week by the nonpartisan group No Labels that it will spend $1 million to boost the congressman.

But Democrats are bullish about their chances of capturing Coffman’s district and The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, recently moved the race into the “Lean Democratic” column from the toss-up column.