RNC debate rules leave long shot candidates with few options

Lesser-known candidates vying for the Republican nomination are facing a difficult problem: How to break through a crowded field if you can’t make it on the debate stage. 

The Republican National Committee (RNC) in June outlined the criteria candidates will need to meet to get on stage for the first primary debate in August, including a having certain number of donors and meeting a polling threshold. 

But candidates with less name recognition or who have joined the race late may have a difficult time meeting those requirements, potentially limiting their opportunity to introduce themselves to a wider audience and gain traction with voters. 

“The debates are arguably the only thing that matters. It’s the only time voters really tune in. It’s when you can see some big shifts happen quickly in the race,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign. 

The RNC has said that to qualify for the first debate, scheduled for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, candidates must be polling at a minimum of 1 percent in at least three national polls, or in two national polls and in early state polls from two of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. 

Candidates also must satisfy a fundraising requirement, having a minimum of 40,000 unique donors and at least 200 unique donors each from 20 or more states or territories. 

If candidates meet those two requirements, in addition to officially filing with the Federal Election Commission that they identify as a candidate for the GOP presidential nomination and designate their principal campaign committee, only then will they be asked to sign the unity pledge — the final step to qualify for the August debate, according to two people familiar with the RNC debate discussions. 

In some of the early 2016 primary debates, candidates needed to satisfy only a polling requirement, not an additional donor threshold. 

The RNC this year is requiring candidates to sign a pledge to support the GOP’s eventual presidential nominee, ruffling feathers among primary contenders.

Some candidates have raised concerns that the requirements are too burdensome and will keep them off the stage, depriving voters of hearing about all of their options and capping their ability to build momentum for their campaigns. 

“We should not be exclusive in the first couple of debates particularly,” 2024 candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson told NBC News. “I disagree with the strategy as to how you’re going to disqualify some for being on that stage.” 

Larry Elder, a conservative radio host running for the GOP nomination, has also hit the RNC over the debate requirements, which he called “onerous” in an interview with The Hill. 

Elder told The Hill it was too early for the RNC to be demanding so much of candidates just to get on the stage, and he argued it would disproportionately hurt campaigns like his. 

“For me, it’s very critical. For someone like Donald Trump, who has a track record and 100 percent name recognition, not so much,” Elder said. “I can’t introduce myself to America unless I make the debate stage.” 

Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) didn’t push back against the donor or polling thresholds but reiterated in an interview with The Hill that he would not sign the unity pledge. 

“I’m not going to support someone who’s careless with our national secrets. I’m not going to support someone who has more baggage that’s only increasing by day, and who’s only complaining about the past and I’m looking to the future,” Hurd said of Trump, who stands a high likelihood of becoming the GOP nominee again. 

“If that means I don’t go on the debate stage, then I won’t go on the debate stage,” he continued. 

RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has defended the threshold requirements, telling conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in an interview in June, “We’re not doing it in a punitive way. We’re doing it in a success metric.” 

“And if you can’t do this to get on the debate stage, you’re probably not going to be able to take on the incumbent president of the United States,” McDaniel continued.  

While members of the party say that both the polling and donor requirements pose challenges for some of the candidates, some also have a message for those complaining about them: Compete or get out of the race. 

“Their focus should be on meeting that threshold. And if they can’t, then that suggests that their campaign isn’t serious enough to warrant attention,” explained Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the RNC. 

Republican strategists say the debate requirements are necessary to prevent a two-tiered debate, harkening back to the 2016 cycle when Republicans held two nights of debates — one for the top-tier candidates and another for candidates faring less competitively.  

But not making the debate stage poses clear risks for candidates, with members of the party noting that it could stifle gaining traction in the race. 

“If you can’t make this debate stage, it’s an absolute killer for your candidacy,” GOP strategist Gregg Keller said. 

“If you cannot make this debate stage, you are not going to factor into the early primaries and caucuses and therefore neither will you factor into the later primaries and caucuses,” he noted. 

Some Republicans argue there are still ways to resuscitate a campaign, even if a candidate can’t make the debate stage, but the crowded field will make that increasingly difficult. Hurd acknowledged not being in the debate could pose consequences for him but suggested he could compensate for not being on a debate stage through actions like in-person events and paid media. 

“Is it a nontraditional campaign? Absolutely. But the way we’re going to run this tent and get more people who are sick and tired of the way things are, is we got to do things a little bit differently,” Hurd told The Hill.