Youngkin gets jolt of political momentum ahead of Virginia elections

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) saw a boost to his political brand Tuesday night after his slate of endorsed candidates in the state legislature races won their primaries. 

Youngkin waded into the GOP contests last month, backing 10 candidates, all of whom won against their primary challengers. 

The results are a boon to the incumbent governor ahead of what is expected to be a hard-fought cycle in November. They also bolster his image as a rising star within the GOP ranks.

In a memo released Wednesday, the chairman of Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, Dave Rexrode, argued Youngkin has an “unprecedented opportunity” to impact November’s races given the commonwealth’s newly drawn district lines, along with other factors. 

“The fact is, an open-seat environment, with a well-liked Governor who is directly working these races, while advancing a popular agenda that moves Virginia forward — is cause for optimism as we look to hold the majority in the House and flip the Senate,” Rexrode wrote. “It is still a challenging climb, but the strength of Governor Youngkin’s image, job approval, and the support of his commonsense agenda is critical to a successful November.”

The governor’s team pointed to contested primary races last night, including in Senate District 27, where Republican Del. Tara Durant, who was backed by Youngkin, defeated Matt Strickland by roughly 14 points. 

“It’s always a risk to involve yourself in an intramural contest, but it was a calculated risk because I think that the governor’s team knows that if you want to win the state Senate back this fall, which is no easy task, then you have to go in and try to find the candidates who would be most successful in that attempt,” said Tucker Martin, a Virginia-based GOP strategist. 

Youngkin rolled out his endorsements along with a slickly produced six-figure ad buy last month ahead of the primaries to flex his political muscles. 

“He is ready to stick his neck out, put his political capital on the line to get good Republican legislators to work with,” said Will Ritter, the CEO of Poolhouse, an agency that does media for Youngkin’s PAC. “What happened last night shows that he’s got a sophisticated political operation that sets a goal and hits it.”

Republicans have touted party unity coming out of Tuesday while painting Democrats as a party grappling with infighting.  

“Gov. Youngkin deserves credit for being a unifying force and being a boost,” said Mike Joyce, communications director at the Republican State Leadership Committee. “Having the unified force that we have going into November, it really speaks to the work that Gov. Youngkin has done.”

But others argue Youngkin and his allies are overhyping the governor’s role Tuesday.

“His candidates won, but they were in Republican primaries,” said Bob Holsworth, a veteran Virginia political analyst. “It doesn’t mean anything for the fall.” 

“It’s important that Tara Durant beat Matt Strickland because that seat is one the Republicans absolutely have to keep if it has any chance whatsoever of flipping the Senate,” Holsworth added. 

“But that won’t win the Senate for him.” 

Holsworth noted that going into November, Democrats are starting with roughly 20 seats that are “relatively safe,” meaning Youngkin and Republicans will be tasked with winning every competitive race and likely will have to flip a seat. 

“It’s not predetermined that he’s likely going to be successful in flipping the Senate,” Holsworth said. “That’s an uphill climb for him in Virginia.” 

And Republicans say they are keenly aware of what will be a steep climb to win back the state Senate, where the Democratic majority has been a bulwark against much of Youngkin’s agenda. 

“It will be tough,” Ritter said. “If we can go back in the way-back machine, Virginia was completely written off as a blue state. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Virginia by 10 points,” he continued, referring to the 2020 election, which took place one year before Youngkin was elected. 

Democrats argue that Youngkin’s narrative coming out of Tuesday’s primaries is designed to boost his national narrative going into the 2024 presidential race. Youngkin has not formally closed the door on a potential run, but his team has maintained he is laser-focused on the Legislature races in Virginia this fall. Youngkin said last month that he would not be headed out on the presidential campaign trail this year. 

While a stellar performance for Virginia Republicans in November could theoretically bode well for Youngkin in a presidential primary, it would be a logistically mammoth task for him to shore up enough support ahead of the Iowa caucuses in early 2024. 

Still, November’s state legislative elections will be partly as a referendum on Youngkin’s first two years in office. Additionally, the stakes are raised for him because he can only serve one consecutive term as governor in Virginia, meaning what happens under him could have a profound impact on his political legacy.

“I think that this fall is going to be characterized by so many countervailing forces that it’s hard to say what the No. 1 issue or dynamic is going to be,” Martin said.

“Yes, there is a portion that will be, ‘How do you feel about the governor’s leadership?’ There’s also going to be a portion of it that will be, ‘How do you feel about how the president’s doing?’ There’s also the Trump effect,” Martin added. “Abortion will be a big issue. Education will be a big issue. And who knows what else will come up between now and November?” 

Political practitioners agree November’s elections in Virginia will be a test for both parties ahead of next year’s general election. 

Democrats have already signaled that they plan to make abortion access a key issue in Virginia, while Republicans are already painting Democrats as too progressive or extreme on multiple fronts. 

“This is going to be like the first election in 2024 in some ways where the parties are going to be testing out their messages,” Holsworth said.