The Memo: GOP candidates search for lanes in newly crowded primary

The GOP 2024 presidential primary is expected to grow more crowded this week with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum all set to officially launch their bids.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu won’t be joining them because he ruled out pursuing the GOP nomination in a CNN interview broadcast Monday.

Even if the field ends up pretty much set after this week, there are enough candidates that it will be a struggle for many of them to find a lane to victory — or even into serious contention.

Here are the paths ahead for the declared candidates

Former President Trump

Trump has by far the clearest pathway to victory given he is the front-runner and, despite all his many controversies, the dominant figure in the party.

In national polling averages, Trump has a lead of around 30 points over his most serious rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The challenge for Trump is not finding a lane, but rather avoiding meeting any insurmountable obstacles.

Speculation is building that charges for Trump could be imminent over sensitive documents found at Mar-a-Lago. Other legal perils proliferate, including charges filed in New York about allegedly falsifying business records and a probe into attempts to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia.

Trump also turns 77 later this month, which raises its own questions about whether voters want to put him in the White House again.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

DeSantis’s basic offer to GOP voters is that he can provide much of the same combative, right-wing populism as Trump, without the propensity for self-defeating chaos.

DeSantis has also begun to jab Trump from the right, suggesting the former president is less staunch in opposition to abortion, among other things.

Still, the Florida governor’s position in the polls has eroded over the past few months, and his embarrassing campaign launch at a creaky Twitter Spaces event didn’t help.

DeSantis’s best bet is to get Trump in a head-to-head contest. That’s certainly possible in the end. But any more missteps could open the door to other candidates.

The more truly viable candidates there are, the thinner the non-Trump vote will be sliced — and that’s bad news for DeSantis.

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.)

Haley and Scott have similarities that go beyond being rooted in South Carolina.

Both are plausible candidates. Both offer a firm conservatism, yet argue they can expand the GOP’s appeal in ways Trump and DeSantis cannot. And both face real challenges in breaking out of the chasing pack and into serious contention.

There are ways it could happen.

Trump and DeSantis could bloody each other up so much that frustrated voters begin to give other options a closer look.

A real misfire by one of the big two — for example, a criminal conviction for Trump or a DeSantis campaign that falls flat — would change the dynamic of the whole race.

Haley and Scott would be well placed to capitalize if that happened.

Given the basic similarities in how Haley and Scott are positioned, however, it’s likely that just one of them, at best, could be truly viable as the nominee.

Former Vice President Pence

Pence will make his candidacy official Wednesday in Iowa.

In a pre-Trump Republican Party, it is easy to see why Pence could discern a path for the presidency.

He has deep roots among Christian conservatives, he has executive experience as a former governor and, as VP to the most recent GOP president, he could conceivably see 2024 as “his turn.”

The problem for Pence is threefold: He is deeply distrusted by the Trump base, having broken with the former president over Jan. 6, 2021. He risks falling between two stools, offering neither Trump-like populism nor a clearly defined alternative. And several other contenders offer a crisper rationale for their candidacies.

It’s very tough to see a path to the nomination for Pence unless several other candidates end up colliding catastrophically in a political demolition derby.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

There is virtually no plausible route to the nomination for Christie, who is poised to launch his campaign Tuesday in New Hampshire.

Christie looks certain to present himself as the most aggressively anti-Trump candidate in the race.

Despite having been allied with Trump at times in the past — including endorsing him early in the 2016 race and being centrally involved in Trump’s debate preparation in 2020 — he has become a harsh critic.

Christie has called Trump “Putin’s puppet” over the war in Ukraine and earlier this month said Trump has “done nothing but lose” since 2016.

There is virtually no evidence that can be a winning proposition in a GOP primary, where Trump is viewed favorably by around 80 percent of the GOP electorate and other figures who have taken a vigorously anti-Trump stance — notably former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) — have been vanquished.

Vivek Ramaswamy

The 37-year-old entrepreneur has made some headline-grabbing proposals and he at least registers in polls.

Advocates argue he could take advantage of dissatisfaction with the status quo and the current fashion for “outsider” candidates.

He could indeed ride those waves to greater prominence. But it would be a seismic shock if he were to become the nominee, or even come close.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Burgum is expected to enter the race this week. Hutchinson has been in the race since April.

There is a slightly more viable path for Burgum, who is more staunchly conservative and independently very wealthy. But it’s tough to see how either one of the two, both of whom are modest and not abundantly blessed with charisma, makes any real impact.