Election Countdown: Calls to abolish ICE test Dem candidates | First round of House GOP ‘Young Guns’ | How Tester is handling Trump’s Montana visit | Dem candidate won’t back Schumer as leader | Super PACs ramp up Missouri ad buys

This is Election Countdown, The Hill’s new newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Ben Kamisar (@BKamisar) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail.  We’d love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@digital-stage.thehill.com and Ben at BKamisar@digital-stage.thehill.com with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).

 

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We’re 124 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 852 days until the 2020 elections.

 

The movement to “Abolish ICE” is gaining steam on the left as progressives fight back against the Trump administration’s controversial border policies.

The challenge to Immigration and Customs Enforcement isn’t entirely new–activists have been hammering at the agency, including on social media, for months.

{mosads}

Some candidates, such as Wisconsin Democrat Randy Bryce, who is running to replace retiring Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), jumped on board early, with calls to get rid of the agency.

But the debate has gained new prominence with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the insurgent progressive who toppled Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) in a shocking primary victory.

Ocasio-Cortez has been one of the most vocal proponents of abolishing ICE and her rise in the party is giving the proposal new momentum on the left.

2020 maneuvering: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) became the first senator to call for eliminating ICE less than two days after Ocasio-Cortez’s victory. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have followed suit. But others are trying to walk the line — Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) said ICE should be “critically re-examined,” while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said the agency should be restructured.

The polling: While the push may be gaining steam in some progressive circles, it’s not a broadly popular policy. Data released this month through The Hill’s partnership with the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll found that just 31 percent of registered voters back the push to disband ICE. The proposal is more popular on the left, with 41 percent of Democrats supporting it, but just 27 percent of independents and 22 percent of Republicans.

Republicans see an edge: Those polling numbers are why Republicans across the country have seized on the issue in the hopes of framing Democrats as out of touch with the American public on immigration. That includes President Trump who has tweeted about it.

The Democrats are making a strong push to abolish ICE, one of the smartest, toughest and most spirited law enforcement groups of men and women that I have ever seen. I have watched ICE liberate towns from the grasp of MS-13 & clean out the toughest of situations. They are great!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 30, 2018

Many Democrats are deeply concerned about the fact that their “leadership” wants to denounce and abandon the great men and women of ICE, thereby declaring war on Law & Order. These people will be voting for Republicans in November and, in many cases, joining the Republican Party!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 3, 2018

Messaging wars: Republicans are convinced the calls to abolish ICE will hurt Democrats in the midterms. Democrats, though, say they aren’t sacrificing border security. Ocasio-Cortez has said that the Justice Department, not Homeland Security, should have oversight over many of those responsibilities and that the focus is on reining in an agency that’s gone too far. Regardless of who wins the messaging fight, the debate is sure to put pressure on many Dems.

 

Senate showdown

Trouble for leadership?: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) told Politico in an interview that she won’t vote for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) if she wins the Arizona Senate election. She’s the first candidate to buck Senate Dem leadership; House candidates have been much more willing to cross House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Don’t forget: Sinema in 2016 also voted against Pelosi.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is telling the state party to stay out of her general election fight, according to the Los Angeles Times. State Senate Leader Kevin de León (D) came close to clinching the state party’s primary endorsement in February, but Feinstein finished leagues ahead of de Leon in the June “top two primary.”

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) called talk of impeaching Trump “inappropriate” and “premature” in an interview with HBO’s “Vice News Tonight.” And to coincide with Trump’s visit to Montana, Tester took out full-page ads to thank the president for signing legislation the senator backed. Tester is seen as one of the most vulnerable Dems… more on that below.

 

The paper chase

Allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) are continuing to signal their biggest priorities of the cycle. In its second round, Senate Leadership Fund reserved $16 million in fall TV ads in Indiana, Tennessee and West Virginia. That brings its current spending to $40 million.

Two major Democratic super PACs, Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC, teamed up to launch a six-figure ad buy that takes aim at Republican Senate candidate Josh Hawley‘s record as Missouri’s attorney general. Hawley is expected to face Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in the fall. Meanwhile, the Missouri GOP voted to allow the RNC to spend money to boost Hawley ahead of the August primary, according to the Kansas City Star.

Vice President Mike Pence will hold a fundraiser for Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) on July 21 in Chattanooga. Tennessee’s Senate race is quickly becoming a battleground that outside groups are prioritizing.

A new super PAC in Arizona — DefendArizona — is going all-in for establishment favorite GOP Rep. Martha McSally. The group is reserving $5 millionin general election TV ads to boost McSally in her Senate campaign.

Speaking of tons of money… Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) released his financial disclosure, which showed he has a net worth of more than $232 million. That’s $83 million more than last year.

 

What we’re watching for

Trump is headed to Montana tonight for a rally where we can expect more fireworks about Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who faces a tough reelection race in a state Trump won by 20 points.

FEC reports for the second fundraising quarter (money raised and spent between April and June) are due on July 15. House reports will be up at midnight, but the Senate is notoriously slower since candidates don’t have to file electronically.

There are no July primaries, but we’ll finally get results in two primary runoffs. In Alabama, Rep. Martha Roby (R) is defending her seat on July 17. And in Georgia’s gubernatorial GOP runoff, secretary of State Brian Kemp and Lt. Gov. Casey Kagle will square off on July 24.

 

Coming to a TV near you

Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kelli Ward‘s latest ad is another opportunity to tie herself close to Trump. She faces a competitive three-way primary on Aug. 28 for retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat. The latest ad touts her support for Trump’s border policies.

Ohio Democrat Danny O’Connor, who is running in next month’s special House election, is up with a new spot that talks up his crossover appeal.

 

Wave watch

Another Dem who won’t back Pelosi: Democrat Kathy Manning, a top recruit running against Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.), wrote that she won’t supportPelosi for speaker, adding to the growing list of Dem congressional candidates who won’t back her in leadership.

The NRCC unveiled its first round of the campaign committee’s “Young Guns” program, signaling what races will be priorities for House Republicans this fall. The initial list includes 11 races where Republicans are on offense or defending an open-seat currently held by the GOP: Here are the districts and the candidates: CA-39: Young Kim; CA-49: Diane Harkey; MN-08: Pete Stauber; NC-09: Mark Harris; NJ-11: Jay Webber; NV-03: Danny Tarkanian; NV-04: Cresent Hardy; OH-16: Anthony Gonzalez; PA-07: Marty Nothstein; PA-08: John Chrin; WA-08: Dino Rossi

Brady Campaign Against Gun Violence announces more endorsements —Jason Crow in CO-06 and Antonio Delgado in NY-19. It is also backing Democratic nominee Rep. Jared Polis in the Colorado governor’s race.

Former President Obama showered praise on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), saying at a DCCC fundraiser in northern California that she’ll “once again be one of the greatest Speakers we ever have after we get through this cycle.”

Can it be competitive? The DCCC has sent a Washington, D.C. operative back to South Carolina’s 1st District in the wake of GOP Rep. Mark Sanford‘s primary defeat, reports McClatchy’s Emma Dumain. It would be a longshot, but Democrats are apparently taking a second look at Democrat Joe Cunningham. Cunningham is running against Republican Katie Arrington. Arrington defeated Sanfofd but she is now recovering from serious injuries suffered in a car crash.

The DNC is launching two new initiatives on Thursday–a talent bank meant to find staff for both the 2018 and future cycles, and five new volunteer training sessions across the country.

 

In case you missed it

The Huffington Post’s Daniel Marans and Kevin Robillard report on how Ocasio-Cortez has quickly become a kingmaker within the Democratic Party. She’s so far endorsed nine congressional candidates and has fundraised for Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Khanna was on the only House Dem to endorse her bid against Joe Crowley.

The Hill’s Sylvan Lane dives into how Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), who ruffled feathers by encouraging the public to confront Trump officials over their policies, is done with “nice guy politics.”

NBC News dropped a bombshell report on Tuesday about accusations that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the House Freedom Caucus founder exploring a bid for Speaker, ignored the sexual abuse of wrestlers he coached at the Ohio State University years ago. Three wrestlers claimed Jordan knew about the abuse, but the congressman has denied the allegation.

The Hill’s Scott Wong and Juliegrace Brufke look at how the controversy could complicate Jordan’s possible bid for speaker.