Election Countdown: Family separation policy may haunt GOP in November | Why Republican candidates are bracing for surprises | House Dems rake in record May haul | ‘Dumpster fire’ ad goes viral

Welcome to Election Countdown, The Hill’s new newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Ben Kamisar (@bkamisar). Each week, we’ll wade through the biggest stories on the campaign trail and some you may have missed. We’d love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@digital-stage.thehill.com and Ben at BKamisar@digital-stage.thehill.com with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please). Click here to sign up.

We’re 6 days until the next round of primaries, 139 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 867 days until the 2020 elections.

 

President Trump‘s reversal on his family separation policy dominated Washington on Wednesday.

The backlash to the administration’s decision to separate children from their families when caught crossing the border illegally boiled over in recent days. Trump faced criticism from lawmakers in both parties, including prominent Republicans.

And the issue took hold with the public as cable networks ran wall-to-wall coverage with images of young children being held behind metal fencing in detention centers.

Trump Wednesday signed an executive order that would keep detained families together.

Democrats quickly pounced on the issue, seeing an edge in November.

By Tuesday, a number of the party’s potential 2020 contenders had seized on the controversy. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) accused Trump of trying to hold children “hostage,” while Sen. Corey Booker (D-N.J.) called it “a low point for me as an American.”

Some of the strongest voices against the policy were vulnerable Republicans who sought to distance themselves from the president.

.@RepBrianFitz: “I firmly detest the heartless and inhumane practice of separating children from their parents at the border. This extreme measure must end.”

— Thomas Kaplan (@thomaskaplan) June 18, 2018

My statement regarding the “zero tolerance” policy that has forced the separation of children from their parents at the United States – Mexico border: pic.twitter.com/b7KlmE1ltE

— Rep. Mike Coffman (@RepMikeCoffman) June 18, 2018

Trump’s executive order could give Republicans a brief respite, but Democrats are unlikely to drop the issue. By Wednesday, the focus was already shifting, with Democrats raising questions about any plan to detain migrant families long term.

This Executive Order doesn’t fix the crisis. Indefinitely detaining children with their families in camps is inhumane and will not make us safe.

— Kamala Harris (@SenKamalaHarris) June 20, 2018

Polling shows the policy is extremely unpopular with moderate and independent voters–a key voter bloc for Democrats.

Two Monday polls from Quinnipiac and CNN found that two thirds of independents oppose separating families at the border, and that Republicans (and voters who approve of Trump) were the only subgroups that supported the policy.

The House GOP is also voting on two immigration bills on Thursday, including a compromise bill that includes help for Dreamers. But Republicans are struggling to get the votes to pass that measure.

Despite Trump’s order, the GOP’s immigration woes aren’t going away any time soon. And in the run up to December, Democrats plan to keep up the pressure.

 

 

Survey says…

With new polls flying in every day, here are a few that caught our eyes:

DCCC internals: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped 11 internal polls on Tuesday that show close races (or Democratic leads) in top races, including those against including those against Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Tom MacArthur (N.J.), Andy Barr (Ky.), John Culberson (Texas) and Barbara Comstock (Va.)

But none will be cakewalks, and incumbent Republicans are even putting up strong numbers in some of these polls too. Some of the GOP lawmakers in those races: Reps. Steve Pearce (N.M), Tom MacArthur (N.J.), Andy Barr (Ky.), Robert Pittenger (N.C.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Lloyd Smucker (Pa.), John Culberson (Texas) and Barbara Comstock (Va.).

Choose your own adventure: There’s good and bad news for both parties in recent polling, so go and tweet about the results that fit your narrative and ignore the other stuff!

For the Democrats out there, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) leads Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley by 6 points in a new poll from the Democratic Senate Majority PAC; Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is ahead of state auditor Matt Rosendale (R) by 8 in a new Gravis poll; and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) leads Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey by around 9 points in a Monmouth poll.

And for you Republicans: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) leads Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) by 4 points (within the margin of error); and in Ohio’s special House election, state Sen. Troy Balderson leads Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) by 11 points in a new JMC poll.

And there’s more news for all of us tracking the GOP Senate primaries.

In Arizona, Rep. Martha McSally holds a 14-point lead over former state Sen. Kelli Ward. Both though tower over former Sheriff Joe Arpaio in the new poll by OH Predictive Insights.

And over in Wisconsin, Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson leads state Sen. Leah Vukmir by 5 points, within the margin of error.

 

What we’re watching for

The big event on the calendar tonight is President Trump’s visit to Duluth, Minn., where he’ll shine a light on what’s one of the most competitive states in the nation this fall, as Ben wrote about last year.

We’ve got more primaries coming around the bend too–Tuesday marks the New York congressional primary, as well as primaries in Maryland, Utah, Colorado and Oklahoma. Oh yeah, Mississippi and South Carolina hold primary runoffs on Tuesday, too.   

 

The paper chase

The Senate map is starting to come into focus as candidates, committees and outside groups begin to dump money on the air. NBC News has this handy chart that lays out the current spending landscape.

With just one big exception — Florida — Dems are outspending GOP over the airwaves (TV, radio) in the most competitive Senate contests https://t.co/gLRO1Bruho pic.twitter.com/NTPq90hJcx

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) June 19, 2018

  

Coming soon to a TV near you

North Dakota’s Kevin Cramer is dusting off the old GOP playbook in a new ad that attacks Heitkamp for supporting … Hillary Clinton (!) way back in 2016. While Cramer and other Republicans have expressed frustration with President Trump’s friendly relationship with Heitkamp, Cramer will finally gets his long-awaited wish: a Trump campaign-style rally in Fargo next week.

Wisconsin’s Vukmir, fighting in her GOP primary against Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson, released a new ad that shows her sitting next to a holstered pistol. In the ad, she talks about threats she faced while in the legislature as well as her work with GOP Gov. Scott Walker. She’s looking to catch fire after winning the state GOP nomination earlier this spring.

Indiana’s Senate race is also heating up with since Republican Mike Braun won the primary to face off against Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. That race is seeing a slew of new ads. Senate Majority PAC has one ad hitting Braun and lauding Donnelly. Donnelly‘s camp went up with a spot over the weekend. Braun also dropped an ad of his own Wednesday.

The internet was abuzz this week with former George W. Bush White House ethics chief Richard Painter’s new ad, where he stands behind a video of a literal dumpster fire to describe the Trump White House. Painter switched parties and is running as a Dem for Minnesota Sente.

And over in the House, the Chamber of Commerce is coming to the aid of GOP Rep. Dan Donovan (N.Y.) as he looks to fend off a tough primary challenge from former Rep. Michael Grimm.

 

Wave watch

We’re 20 weeks out from the midterms and as our Reid Wilson puts it (with a little help from Donald Rumsfeld) there are some big “known unknowns” that could upend the midterm calculus. It’s unclear how Mueller’s Russia investigation, the economy, Trump’s tariffs and the diplomatic dance with North Korea will play out. Read Reid (so sorry) for more on how the GOP is bracing for surprises this election season.

Cook Political Report brought some good news for Democrats, moving KY-06 (GOP Rep. Andy Barr vs. Democrat Amy McGrath) and VA-10 (GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock vs. Democrat Jennifer Wexton) in the party’s direction.

The DCCC announced a solid May haul of $11.3 million while the NRCC raised $5.1 million over the same time. Both organizations have the same cash on hand.

The RNC brought in $14.6 million that month as it continues to rake in cash (h/t Playbook), while we’re still waiting for the DNC to file its monthly report.

The wave watch isn’t as dire over in the Senate, but this analysis from the Weekly Standard’s David Byler is a good thing to bookmark for the next few months. Right now, he says the GOP has a 69.3 percent chance of holding the Senate.

 

In case you missed it

The New York Times’s Adam Liptak has a deep dive on how the Supreme Court punted on what could have been a landmark case on partisan gerrymandering.

The Kansas City Star’s team discovered that Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s husband has $1 million in an investment tied to the Cayman Islands, which is regularly used as a tax haven.

Our very own Lisa Hagen gives us the low-down on the two millennials challenging longtime New York Democratic Reps. Joe Crowley and Carolyn Maloney from the left.

McClatchy’s Alex Roarty travels to Modesto to sketch out how Democrats are looking to use the issue of health care to defeat California Republican Rep. Jeff Denham.

Alex Thompson with Vice discovered a shady group that spent $1,900 on Facebook ads in the tight Virginia GOP Senate primary. The ads appear to have been done in violation of campaign finance law.

Our Ben Kamisar checks in on one of the tightest House races this cycle, where Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is in the fight of his life.

Politico’s Alex Isenstadt has the scoop on a strange story about Rudy Giuliani working to oust an incumbent congressman.

 

What they’re saying

Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist and contributor to The Hill, argues that the entire GOP will suffer for the Trump administration’s border policies.

Dan Palmer, a GOP strategist and contributor at The Hill, believes that the past few weeks have shown Trump to be the “pragmatist” that he promised the American voters he’d be on the campaign trail.