Gallego leads Sinema, Republican candidates in potential Arizona Senate matchups: poll

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and a series of other Republicans in potential match-ups for Arizona’s 2024 Senate race, according to a new poll. 

The poll from OH Predictive Insights released Thursday showed Gallego leading in eight hypothetical match-ups, four of which against Sinema running independently and four with Gallego facing a Republican in a head-to-head race. 

The four Republicans included in the poll was former Gov. Doug Ducey, former gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, former gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and former Senate nominee Blake Masters. 

In a three-person race, Gallego leads by as little as 5 points in a race with Ducey and as much as 9 points in a race with Masters. He leads by 7 points in the race with Taylor Robson and by 8 points in the race with Lake. 

He also leads in the two-person match-ups, but the margin varies significantly based on who the Republican candidate is. He leads by 4 points against Ducey and Taylor Robson, but he leads by 10 points against Lake and 11 points against Masters. 

But more than 20 percent of respondents said they were undecided in all match-ups. 

Gallego announced his bid for Senate to replace Sinema last month, arguing that Sinema has prioritized wealthier individuals over Arizona families. He has repeatedly criticized Sinema from the left in recent months. 

Sinema, who was first elected to the Senate in 2018 as a Democrat, announced in December that she was leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an Independent senator. She said at the time that the decision was about “being true to who I am and how I operate” and giving a sense of belonging to people from Arizona and across the country who are “tired” of partisanship. 

Sinema has not officially announced if she will run for reelection in 2024, but her party switch sets up the potential for a three-way race. 

“What I take away from this data is that the two key factors in this Senate race will be the ‘style’ of Republican nominated to run and whether Sinema is also on the ballot,” Mike Noble, the polling firm’s chief of research, said in the release. “But, there’s a long time between now and election day, which leaves plenty of opportunity for something to happen that can shift the dynamics of this race.” 

Gallego was the only candidate in the poll who had more respondents say they viewed favorably than unfavorably. Taylor Robson and Sinema’s numbers were only slightly underwater, while Lake and Masters are viewed significantly more unfavorably than favorably. 

The poll was conducted as part of an online opt-in survey among 1,000 registered voters’ completed surveys. The margin of error was 3.1 points.