Cook Political Report gives GOP slight edge in 2024 House races

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report is giving Republicans a slight edge in a slew of competitive 2024 House races, rating 18 GOP-held seats as toss-ups or “lean Republican,” compared to 24 Democratic-held seats that were rated similarly.

Cook Political Report’s House editor Dave Wasserman explained in an analysis released on Thursday that one group of Democrats who faced the most challenging reelection bids included a mix of lawmakers from Ohio and North Carolina — Reps. Don Davis (N.C.), Kathy Manning (N.C.), Wiley Nickel (N.C.), Jeff Jackson (N.C.), Greg Landsman (Ohio) and Emilia Sykes (Ohio) — given the possibility that both states could redraw the lines of their legislative maps.

He noted that both states now have GOP-controlled state Supreme Courts, which could allow the legislative maps to be redrawn, posing tougher paths for each of them for reelection. 

He also said that one group of Republicans who faced the most challenging reelection bid included New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams given that they’re likely to be key House races Democrats focus on going into the next election — all won districts by single digits that were won by President Biden in 2020.

All of those Democratic and GOP House lawmakers are listed in the “toss-up” column.

The analysis comes as campaigns are gearing up for a consequential 2024 presidential election. House Republicans are holding onto a slim 222-213 majority after performing less than expected amid earlier enthusiasm of a red wave.

While the GOP majority is slim, Wasserman’s analysis suggests that the picture may not be so bleak for Republicans heading into 2024. But he also noted that “with 18 Republicans sitting in districts carried by President Biden in 2020 and just five Democrats sitting in districts carried by Donald Trump, there are more than enough vulnerable GOP seats on the table to keep the House in play for Democrats.”