More than 40 House Democratic candidates outraised Republican incumbents in the first fundraising quarter of 2018, another booming fundraising period for the left.
By comparison, Republican challengers outraised Democratic incumbents in just two seats, according to the Cook Political Report.
The most recent trends build on strong fundraising quarters by Democrats that have prompted concerns from Republicans about their ability to hold the House.
{mosads}“Even before last week, Democratic donors had been demonstrating far more enthusiasm on a race-by-race basis, a fact reflected in the newest House fundraising reports. The newest [Federal Election Commission] FEC filings spell danger for Republicans, ” Cook election analyst David Wasserman wrote in a new blog post on Wednesday.
“That’s going to force the [National Republican Campaign Committee] NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund to bail out a lot of cash-strapped GOP candidates come the fall.”
On top of the quarterly reports, 15 Republican incumbents had less cash on hand than their likely Democratic challengers, according to Open Secrets.
One of the most striking examples is Democrat Dan McCready, who’s been a consistently strong fundraiser and a top recruit for the party.
He raised about $615,000 in the first quarter of the year, nearly doubling the haul of Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-N.C.), who brought in about $350,000.
The clean energy expert also has a massive cash advantage, with more than $1.3 million on hand. Pittenger has about $253,000 in the bank, which he will need not only for the general but also to get through a tough primary.
Pittenger will face a rematch against Republican Mark Harris, who lost by just 134 votes in the 2016 primary.
Those dynamics have prompted the Cook analysts to change ratings in seven races in favor of Democrats.
The race for the Arizona House seat former held by Rep. Trent Franks (R) — who resigned after reportedly discussing paying a staffer to act as a surrogate mother — shifted from solid Republican to likely Republican.
That election is being fought on clear GOP turf, as the district is considered a Republican stronghold and President Trump won it in 2016 by 21 points.
Yet recent polling is showing the race tightening. One survey last week found Democrat Hiral Tipirneni trailing Republican Debbie Lesko by 10 points, while two polls released this week — one a non-partisan poll from Emerson College and another internal poll by the Democrat’s campaign — found the race within the margin of error.
Other races that shifted to the left include those involving Republican Reps. French Hill (Ark.), Randy Hultgren (Ill.), Jack Bergman (Mich.), David Joyce (Ohio), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Tom Garrett (Va.). All of those Republicans were outraised by their likely Democratic opponents.
Democratic candidates are the leading fundraisers in 15 open seats currently held by a Republican. Republicans lead in just three currently Democratic-held open seats, according to Cook.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats in the midterms to retake the majority in the House. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Democrats currently have a 5.5 percentage point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot.
Democrats are optimistic that a combination of historical trends, which typically find the incumbent president’s party losing seats in a midterm election, as well as President Trump’s dismal favorability rating could contribute to a strong showing in November.
–Updated at 12:55 p.m.