Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking the latest news on campaigns and elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox Tuesdays and Thursdays.
Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood, Julia Manchester and Caroline Vakil. Someone forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.
McDaniel gets a boost from GOP donors
While Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel may be facing a challenge to her leadership in the GOP, there’s one group that she can count on for support: donors.
In a letter obtained by The Hill, more than 150 Republican donors came out in support of McDaniel as she seeks another term as RNC chair, saying that her role in beefing up the party’s fundraising and voter registration efforts should be enough to earn her another two years at the helm.
“Ronna is a tireless fundraiser and a trustworthy steward of donor resources,” the donors wrote in the letter, which was sent to RNC members. “We are confident her continued leadership will put us in the best position to conduct a smooth and victorious 2024 Presidential election.”
“As investors in the Party and successful leaders in our businesses and communities, we believe Ronna should be elected to another term to continue this important work, which she will do with skill and determination,” they added.
The letter was a much-needed show of support for McDaniel by some of the GOP’s most prominent funders. Among those who signed on to the letter were mega-donors like Steve Wynn and Liz Uihlein, as well as former Trump administration officials like ex-Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and former Ambassador to Slovenia Linda Blanchard.
The context: McDaniel, who was hand-picked to lead the RNC by former President Trump after he was elected in 2016, is facing an open rebellion from many in the GOP’s right flank. RNC members are set to meet in Dana Point, Calif. next week when they’ll decide whether to give her another term as chair or replace her with someone else.
Two other hopefuls are running for McDaniel’s job: RNC committee member Harmeet Dhillon and pillow salesman Mike Lindell, who has become one of the most vocal proponents of Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was rigged against him. Dillon is seen as the more serious challenger to McDaniel, and has also received public support from another group of Republican donors.
Also worth noting: Trump isn’t taking a stance, despite his close relationship with McDaniel, telling the conservative podcast “The Water Cooler” on Monday that he would leave McDaniel and Dhillon to “fight it out.”
The 2024 Senate map
It’s no secret that 2024 is shaping up to be a tough year for Senate Democrats. They’re defending more than twice as many seats as Republicans are, including in a handful of GOP-leaning states. What’s more, at least one Democratic incumbent, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), is retiring, and there are questions about whether others will do the same.
Here’s a quick look at the eight Senate seats that appear most likely to change party hands in 2024:
Arizona: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is facing challenges from both sides after she left the Democratic Party to become an Independent. A three-way race could give Republicans a better chance to flip the seat.
Michigan: Stabenow’s retirement gives Republicans an open seat to target, while Democrats still have to figure out who they want to succeed the longtime senator.
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) hasn’t yet said whether he will run for reelection in 2024. At the same time, Montana isn’t exactly a swing state. Trump carried it in 2020 by more than 16 points, while Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) won reelection that same year by 10 points.
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) is facing her first reelection bid in the state that played host to one of the closest Senate contests in the country last year.
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) won reelection in 2018 in a state that has lurched to the right in recent years. But Ohio has only continued to move toward Republicans since then, and Brown likely has a steep challenge ahead.
Pennsylvania: Democrats may have pulled out a win in Pennsylvania’s 2022 Senate race, but the state’s a perennial battleground that is sure to be a top priority for both parties come 2024, when Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) will face reelection.
West Virginia: Like Tester, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) hasn’t said whether he will run for reelection in 2022. If he decides to retire, it would almost certainly take the seat out of play for Democrats, given West Virginia’s deep-red hue.
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) will face reelection in another perennial battleground where voters just reelected Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a conservative Trump ally, in November.
CHICAGO MAYORAL CANDIDATES READY FOR DEBATE
Some of the country’s largest cities are set to elect their top executives this year, and topping the list is Chicago’s mayoral race.
Mayor Lori Lightfoot is seeking a second term in office after making history in 2019 when she was elected as Chicago’s first Black lesbian mayor. But she’s frustrated many progressives, who say that she’s failed to deliver on her promises after nearly four years in office.
Lightfoot now faces eight challengers, including Rep. Jesús ‘Chuy’ García (D-Ill.), who appears to be her most formidable opponent. All nine candidates are set to meet for a debate on Thursday, giving them a chance to make their case to voters ahead of the Feb. 28 election.
It appears unlikely that the race will end then. A candidate must receive at least half the vote to win the election outright, and given the crowded field of candidates, that would seem to be a tall order.
If no candidate emerges victorious on Feb. 28, the race will head to an April 4 runoff between the two top vote-getters
Of course, Chicago isn’t the only big city with a mayoral election this year. Houston, Philadelphia, Dallas and Denver are all slated to select new mayors in 2023. Caroline has a breakdown of those races here.
DOLAN JUMPS INTO 2024 OHIO SENATE RACE
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) officially has his first big-name challenger.
Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan jumped into the race for Brown’s seat on Monday. Dolan previously ran for his state’s other Senate seat last year, but came in third place in the primary. Republican J.D. Vance ultimately went on to win that race against now-former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).
“A lot can change in thirty years, but in that time Sherrod Brown’s commitment to his party has remained the same,” Dolan said in a statement. “Together with Joe Biden, Sherrod Brown has kicked America’s problems down the road for a generation. Their time is up.”
That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you Thursday.