Democrats are bracing for a challenging gubernatorial election in Kentucky as Gov. Andy Beshear (D) vies for a second term in a state that went overwhelmingly for former President Trump in 2020.
The red state Democrat enjoys a high level of support in Kentucky and has won praise from some Republicans over his handling of natural disasters, but members of his party know that winning another term in the governor’s mansion will be no simple task. Beshear faces GOP criticism over his handling of issues like the COVID-19 pandemic, while the state continues to trend redder.
“We’re not under any delusion that this will be an easy [race],” said Louisville-based Democratic strategist David Contarino, who serves as chairman of Kentucky Family Values, a super PAC that’s been involved in the last three gubernatorial races.
“I think the principal headwind is simply the polarized nature of American politics, and there are just a lot of folks in Kentucky in particular, but in a lot of places, that are hardcore Republicans. And while they might even appreciate some of the work that Gov. Beshear has done, the party loyalty can sometimes overcome even affection for somebody of the other party,” he noted.
The son of a former two-term governor, Beshear won his first election in 2019 against then-Gov. Matt Bevin (R) by less than half a percentage point. Bevin’s time in office was most notably marked by confrontations with teachers, including over the state’s pension system which suffers from underfunding. The former governor also rankled Democrats and Republicans alike, drawing ire for firing several staffers working for one of his Cabinet members and for pardoning felons, some of whom had been convicted of serious crimes.
Kentucky has undergone a lot of change over the last three years, experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, a rise in opioid deaths, and what Beshear lauded during his Thursday State of the Commonwealth address as “the best two-year period for economic growth in state history” between 2021 and 2022. The state has also grappled with a serious teacher shortage, the tornadoes in western Kentucky in 2021 and serious flooding in eastern Kentucky last year, and outbreaks of violence within juvenile detention centers.
A number of GOP candidates are now vying to take on Beshear, including state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, former Trump U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft, State Auditor Mike Harmon, Somerset Mayor Alan Keck and retired attorney Eric Deters.
There was speculation ahead of the Friday filing deadline that Bevin would file for reelection, especially given that he had scheduled to hold a news conference in the Kentucky state Capitol more than an hour before all candidates needed to file paperwork. But the 15-minute press conference offered no signs that the former governor would be running and was widely heralded as a troll to the press while offering some relief to Republicans anxious about another Bevin election bid.
“The hard part is gonna be – for anybody – is the state has trended so hard to the red side of the aisle,” said Jimmy Cauley, who served as campaign manager and later chief of staff for former Gov. Steve Beshear (D), noting the GOP supermajority in the state House.
“I think Andy, between the economic development stuff, the jobs and just the way he’s handled natural disasters and COVID – I mean for any other D in the state, it might be, you know, unthinkable,” Cauley noted. “But I think he’s put it not only within reach, but possible.”
But Republicans believe the momentum to win back the governor’s mansion is on their side.
Sean Southard, a spokesman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, noted that Republicans made further inroads in their supermajority in the Kentucky General Assembly. This past November, Republicans gained five more seats in the state House, establishing an 80-seat majority in a 100-seat chamber. And in the state Senate, Republicans also gained one extra seat, putting them at a 31-seat majority from the 38-seat chamber.
Voter registration in Kentucky has also shifted in Republicans’ favor, with registered Republicans surpassing registered Democrats for the first time last year. Southard said Republicans are “optimistic” heading into the gubernatorial election.
“The Republican party is alive and well in Kentucky,” Southard said, noting the GOP sees the crowded Republican primary “as a sign of energy within the Republican Party.”
Kentucky-based GOP strategist Scott Jennings singled out Cameron, Quarles and Craft as candidates having the most competitive shot at the governor’s mansion. Cameron, known for his breakout speech in 2020 at the Republican National Convention, has frequently gone head-to-head with Beshear over issues like COVID-19 pandemic emergency powers.
Meanwhile, Quarles has served in the state House and has been elected twice to statewide office as Kentucky’s commissioner of agriculture. Craft, a former U.N. ambassador and former U.S. ambassador to Canada under the Trump administration, is married to coal magnate Joe Craft, and became the first GOP candidate to air TV ads for the upcoming race in the state.
A source close to the Cameron campaign believes that confrontations with the governor over issues like Beshear’s handling of the pandemic have “elevated him in the minds of many Republican voters,” suggesting that it’s proven how Cameron has advocated for voters and differentiates himself from the rest of the pack.
Kristin Davison, an advisor for Craft’s campaign, believes that the former U.N. ambassador has a relatable story to Kentuckians and can uniquely connect with voters.
Still, Republicans know they have their work cut out for them in the race.
For one, Beshear will be entering the race as an incumbent with a financial edge. He raised more than $646,000 in the last quarter in 2022 and ended the quarter with roughly $4.7 million cash on hand, according to the latest state campaign filing.
At the same time, the latest state campaign filings show that Craft had raised over $547,000 in the last quarter of 2022, while Cameron had raised close to $260,000 during that same period and Quarles raised roughly $54,000.
The natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic have also lent hours of TV coverage to Beshear, making voters more intimately familiar with the governor. But Jennings said that coverage has “obscured his partisanship.”
“Beshear is a standard issue liberal Democrat. He has governed like a Democrat. He vetoes bills that Democrats want him to veto. He doesn’t work with Republicans. He’s pretty partisan,” Jennings said. “But he has benefited from his entire term being dominated by these emergency situations: COVID, tornadoes, flooding, and that has dominated the coverage of him.”
Comparatively, Beshear’s campaign believes they’re already making the case to voters that the governor can set aside politics and work across the aisle. His campaign manager, Eric Hyers, pointed to the governor appearing alongside Republicans like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) on Wednesday during President Biden’s visit in the state to discuss investments for the Brent Spence Bridge.
As for Republicans’ recently expanded supermajorities in the Kentucky General Assembly, Hyers said that people will be making a different kind of calculation when they consider the governor’s mansion.
“How the voters think about who they want their governor to be is a different process than who they send to Washington or who they send to Frankfort,” Hyers said. “People are going to have a choice between steady, compassionate, common sense, pragmatic leadership that has at least led to a great economy, high surplus, low unemployment and someone that people could count on in times of crisis, or not. And that is why he has such high approval ratings in a state like this.”