Campaign Report — What’s in store for 2023

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday as we make sense of this year’s elections and look ahead to 2024.  

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The races to watch in 2023

A number of races are ramping up for off-year elections later this year, particularly in Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, Virginia, New Jersey and Wisconsin.

Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi will be holding key gubernatorial races, which will serve as another datapoint of the political headwinds each party could face ahead of 2024’s presidential election. Govs. Andy Beshear (D) of Kentucky and Tate Reeves (R) of Mississippi are both intending to run for a second term while Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) of Louisiana is term-limited. 

Beshear is one of a few Democrats elected to the top state office in a state that former President Trump won in 2020. While he’s enjoyed a high approval rating in a ruby red state, the Kentucky Democrat will still have to contend with the state’s Republican leanings and is already defending his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, a frequent criticism among the GOP in the Bluegrass State. 

Over in Mississippi, Reeves has said he intends to run for his position again and no other Republicans have formally announced a challenge yet. A feather in Reeves’ cap is that he’s an incumbent in the red-leaning state, which could make ousting him during a primary much more difficult. Still, the Mississippi Republican has suffered from low approval ratings during his time in the governor’s mansion and there’s plenty of time for primary challengers to pick up steam ahead of the August primary. 

And in Louisiana, while the Democratic candidate field hasn’t emerged yet, Republicans may see a crowded GOP primary depending on whether Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who has said he’s considering a gubernatorial bid, enters the race. State Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) has already thrown his hat into the race and notched an endorsement from the Louisiana GOP. 

Virginia and New Jersey will both hold elections for legislative chambers. While Democrats control the state Senate in Virginia, the House of Delegates is controlled by the GOP. In New Jersey, Democrats control both the General Assembly and state Senate.  

Plus, there will be an election to replace outgoing conservative Justice Patience Roggensack in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court – a consequential election given that the partisan tilt of the high court has a 4-3 conservative majority, though the election to replace Roggensack is technically nonpartisan.

Can Biden take on DeSantis? 

Both President Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R ) emerged as victors after the November midterms, albeit for different reasons. Biden and his party were able to secure a Senate majority for two more years and Democrats lost their House majority by fewer than expected numbers.  

Meanwhile, Republicans pointed to DeSantis’ nearly 20-point reelection win against Democrat Charlie Crist as a silver lining for the GOP, even flipping the traditionally blue Miami-Dade County. Republicans since the midterms have been more comfortable criticizing former President Trump and even referring to DeSantis as the leader of the GOP.  

But as our Alex Gangitano writes, polling from last month, however, is raising questions about whether Biden can take on DeSantis in 2024 should Biden choose to run for president again and should the Florida governor decide to throw his hat into the race. First off, there’s the age factor: Biden would end his second presidential term, if elected, at 86 years old.  

A Biden-DeSantis match-up would also raise questions about how Biden would characterize himself in the race, as he used the last presidential election to cast himself as a foil to Trump.  

The numbers: And then there’s the polls. A survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released last month showed DeSantis receiving 47 percent support in a hypothetical match-up against Biden, who received 43 percent. Meanwhile, a Marquette Law School poll also out last month showed the two tied at 42 percent in a hypothetical match-up.  

“It’s crazy to me that Biden is polling so low, even with Dems, considering how much has been accomplished in these first two years,” Democratic strategist Cristina Antelo told Alex. “But, yes, Dems seem worried that ‘an old white guy’ at the top of the ticket just isn’t going to cut it if the threats to democracy that Trump embodies aren’t on the ballot.” 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

There was a lot going on in 2022, especially last month: Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake lost her election lawsuit contesting results in the Grand Canyon State and after losing her race; Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) came under fire after he admitted to fabricating parts of his personal and professional history; and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is mulling its early presidential primary calendar for 2024 — to name a few! 

Here’s a look at some of the headlines and in-depth coverage you may have missed over the holiday break: 

What does Kari Lake’s future look like? That’s the question that Zach Schonfeld is askingafter Arizona GOP candidate Kari Lake lost her gubernatorial bid against Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake, who was one of former President Trump’s most notable endorsees in the midterm cycle, was seen as a promising new figure within the party, but her loss – due in part from her defense of election denialism – has left many wondering what happens next. 

“If she had won this race, if she had become governor, yes,” Arizona-based GOP strategy Barrett Marson said, in reference to whether Trump will choose Lake as a running mate. “But now — you can be a lot of things in Trump World, but you can’t be a loser.” 

What does the Senate landscape look like for 2024? It’s 2023, but it might as well be 2024. All eyes are now looking to next year, which is gearing up for a presidential election. But as our Al Weaver notes, there’s some very critical Senate seats up for reelection and Democrats are finding themselves more on the defense than in 2022. Some lingering questions Al has include how Republicans will fix their candidate quality issue and whether Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will encourage a primary challenge against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) should she run again. 

What factors will go into sorting the GOP nominee? Our Max Greenwood also reminds us that while Trump has announced a White House bid, it’s still a long ways away from 2024 and the GOP presidential primary. Some of the factors that could determine the 2024 nominee include whether it’ll be a crowded field, if DeSantis sees more momentum and how Trump’s legal woes shake out.  

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you Thursday.