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Pennsylvania special election: live results

by Ben Kamisar and Lisa Hagen - 03/13/18 11:31 AM ET

Election day is here in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone are squaring off for a House seat in a special election that’s being closely watched for what it could say about November’s midterms.

Republicans are scrambling to stave off a Democratic upset in the western Pennsylvania district that President Trump won by nearly 20 points in the 2016 election. A loss by Saccone, a state legislator, would send shockwaves through the political world and raise fears whether the GOP can hang on to its House majority.

{mosads}The Hill will be providing live updates, including details from on the ground in Pennsylvania. Polls closed at 8 p.m.

Lamb declares victory

Updated at 12:53 a.m.

Lamb declared victory in a speech to supporters early Wednesday morning, although media outlets still haven’t called the race and Saccone hasn’t conceded.

Lamb party keeps on going amid tight race

Updated at 12:33 a.m.

As Tuesday turns into Wednesday, the crowd at the Lamb event hasn’t thinned out. Supporters are glued to the giant projector screens tuned to CNN that flank the podium, cheering wildly at any mention of their candidate and booing Saccone.

They are all hoping to catch a glimpse of their candidate, who is expected on stage to address his supporters soon.

GOP campaign arm: Race is too close

Updated at 12:10 a.m.

House Republicans’ campaign wing is insisting the race is still too close to call, even as their Democratic counterparts declare victory.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) said in a statement late Tuesday night that it’s still too close to call the race. The NRCC said Saccone could win the race, even as Lamb leads by 579 votes.

“This race is too close to call and we’re ready to ensure that every legal vote is counted. Once they are, we’re confident Rick Saccone will be the newest Republican member of Congress,” said NRCC communications director Matt Gorman.

Dem campaign arm declares an early victory

Updated at 11:44 p.m.

The Pennsylvania race is still considered too close to call, but that hasn’t stopped the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) — the campaign arm for House Democrats — from declaring victory and congratulating Lamb.

In a statement, DCCC chairman Rep. Ben Ray Luján (N.M.) said the results “should terrify Republicans.”

“There are more than one hundred districts more favorable for Democrats than this one and we look forward to competing hard in every single one,” Luján said.

Race too close to call

Updated at 11:42 p.m.

With some absentee ballots still outstanding, the race is too close to call, according to The Associated Press.

With virtually all the votes counted late Tuesday night, Lamb had 111,875 votes to Saccone’s 111,028 votes — a margin of just 847 votes. More absentee votes from GOP-leaning areas have not yet been counted, but it’s unclear whether those absentees will cut the gap.

Lion’s share of absentees will be counted tonight

Updated at 11:25 p.m.

Officials in Washington County have changed their minds and will count the county’s 1,195 absentee ballots tonight after all, as Pennsylvania hopes to name a winner at some point overnight.

Appearing on CNN, Washington County Elections Director Larry Spahr announced that officials are in the process of removing absentee ballots from secure envelopes and plan to scan them before performing an additional hand count. Spahr added that process will take “several hours.”

Lamb currently has an 847 vote lead, so Saccone will have to win a significant portion of these absentee ballots to come out on top.

Lamb rebuilds leads as absentee ballots come in

Updated at 11:15 p.m.

Lamb has slightly opened back up his lead over Saccone, with 99 percent of precincts reporting. The Pennsylvania Democrat holds a 0.4-point lead, or 847 votes.

Lamb got a small bump now that Allegheny County has counted its 3,750 absentee ballots. Lamb won 1,930 of those ballots, while Saccone got 1,178.

Lamb has 752 additional votes now per @GaryTuchmanCNN in Allegheny bc of absentee ballots there https://t.co/zcVafLIUz6

— Dana Bash (@DanaBashCNN) March 14, 2018

Lamb lead down to less than 100 votes

Updated at 10:55 p.m.

With 99 percent of the ballots counted, Lamb leads by just 95 votes.

Some absentee ballots will wait until tomorrow

Updated at 10:53 p.m.

The special election will likely come down to the absentee ballots, but two counties won’t count and post those votes until Wednesday morning: Greene and Washington counties.

Greene and Washington counties’ absentee ballots make up about 20 percent of the total 6,951 absentee ballots.

Here’s the breakdown of the estimated absentee ballots in each county: Allegheny (3,750), Greene (203), Washington (1,190) and Westmoreland (1,808).

That news comes as Lamb still leads Saccone by a 0.4-point margin, with 98 percent of precincts reporting.

Absentee ballots could boost Lamb

Updated at 10:32 p.m.

Absentee ballots could boost Lamb’s dwindling lead, according to Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman.

Lamb (D) should expect a pretty healthy boost from uncounted absentees. Why? 1) They’ve historically skewed Dem 2) More than half of them are from Allegheny Co. (despite Allegheny only being ~43% of #PA18). pic.twitter.com/SAth8WtnY0

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

Lamb clings to razor-thing lead

Updated at 10:27 p.m.

The margin has again shrunk, with Lamb holding on by 0.2-point lead of 540 votes, with 97 percent of precincts reporting.

Allegheny and Westmoreland counties are nearly done reporting their vote totals, while Washington County has reported 93 percent of their precincts.

The race is expected to end in a close finish. With no automatic recount for a congressional race, the close margin could mean that the losing candidate will petition for a recount.

No automatic recount

Updated at 10:22 p.m.

With the margin so tight, it’s worth noting that Pennsylvania’s election law only allows for automatic recounts in statewide races. Only races with “a candidate for a public office which appears on the ballot in every election district” are eligible — and this race doesn’t meet that requirement.

That means there won’t be an automatic recount once the votes are all counted, although it’s possible that a candidate can petition for a recount.

Could the libertarian play spoiler?

Updated at 10:12 p.m.

With all the talk about Saccone versus Lamb, this isn’t a two man race. There’s also Drew Miller, the Libertarian candidate who has won just about the same number of votes as the margin between the two main candidates.

Miller has 1,267 votes with 95 percent of precincts reporting, while just 1,132 votes separate Saccone and Lamb.

Miller is an energy lawyer from Pittsburgh who does not live in the congressional district, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. But he might ending play a big role in who wins.

Dead heat in the final stretch

Updated at 10:06 p.m.

Lamb’s early lead has now nearly evaporated, with 96 percent of precincts reporting.

The Pennsylvania Democrats leads by only 0.6 percent of the vote. Saccone has pulled closer to Lamb as more rural, Republican precincts are reporting their results.

Lamb hits his mark as one county finishes its results

Updated at 9:46 p.m.

All of the votes in Greene County have officially been reported, according to The Associated Press. Saccone won the county by a margin of 58 percent to Lamb’s 42 percent. That’s right above where analyst Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said Lamb needed to be if he wants to win tonight.

Breaking: 100% of Greene Co. now reporting. Final precinct there pushed Lamb (D) up to 42. That’s 1% above what thought he needed there to win #PA18.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

Lamb is vastly outperforming 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the county.

Clinton won just 28 percent of the vote in Greene County compared to President Trump’s 68 points. But Trump won the district by 20 points that year, so the GOP has a cushion there to underperform and still win.

RNC rep: Lamb “has essentially run as a Republican”

Updated at 9:44 p.m.

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said Tuesday night that Lamb “has essentially run as a Republican” in the race.

“He’s pro-gun. He says he’s personally pro-life. He says he’s pro-coal, he’s pro-tariff,” McEnany said on ABC News ahead of the election results Tuesday.

“Imagine that, a Democratic candidate who’s against Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader,” she said. “He has made himself into essentially a Republican. So you have a Republican in name and a Republican in truth running against one another.”

Analysts see a close race

Updated at 9:40 p.m.

Just hours ago, some analysts were expecting an early night. That doesn’t look to be the case now, as the race looks sets to come down to the wire.

Lamb leads by 4 points with 71 percent of the precincts reporting. But we are waiting on more red areas, particularly in Westmoreland County, a fact that has election analysts giving pause.

Right now, all the counties are breaking as they would in a tied #PA18 outcome. The reason I might but a thumb on the scale for Lamb (D) is higher intensity/turnout in Dem-heavy precincts vs. GOP-heavy ones. But it’s super-close.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

Again folks this is close… but the polls suggested a slight Lamb edge heading in… I don’t see anything to doubt that. We’ll see though. Votes need to be counted.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 14, 2018

PENNSYLVANIA 18: With 63% in, Saccone running 8% behind Trump in Allegheny, 12% behind in Greene, 11% in Washington, and 9% behind in Westmoreland. This looks like a 51-48% Lamb win (6800 vote margin), but still too tight to call #PA18

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) March 14, 2018

Saccone narrows gap

Updated at 9:16 p.m.

The gap is shrinking between the two candidates, even as Lamb continues to outperform or hit the benchmarks he needs to pull off an upset.

With 40 percent of precincts reporting in The Associated Press’s tabulations, Lamb leads 54 percent to 45 percent.

The Democrat is at about 58 percent of the vote in Allegheny County, his stronghold, while Saccone is leading in the reliably Republican Westmoreland County.

The New York Times is interpreting those results as a 53 percent chance of Lamb winning. But keep an eye on the margins in those two key counties to see who is able to turn out more of their base.

Former GOP rep: Respect the blue wave

Updated at 9:13 p.m.

Former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.), an outspoken internal critic of the GOP, tweeted that Republicans need a wake-up call after Democrats’ strong performance in a district Trump won by nearly 20 points.

Walsh urged that Republicans must not “dismiss” a blue wave that’s forming ahead of the November midterm elections, cautioning that the party will lose if they do.

“Wake up Republicans. A blue wave is coming. Don’t dismiss the blue wave. Respect the blue wave. Or we won’t defeat the blue wave,” Walsh tweeted Tuesday night.

Reporters, Dems bemoan return of NYT needle made infamous in 2016

Updated at 9:04 p.m.

Journalists and election watchers on Tuesday begrudgingly turned their eyes to The New York Times’s election forecast needle dial as early returns showed Conor Lamb with a lead.

The needle gained notoriety during the 2016 presidential race, when it moved from a solid forecast for Hillary Clinton toward a victory for President Trump. It then correctly forecast a victory for Sen. Doug Jones in December’s special election in Alabama.

“I hate that needle so very much,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) tweeted.

I hate that needle so very much.

— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) March 14, 2018

“Hello darkness my old friend I’ve come to talk with you again,” CNN reporter Andrew Kaczynski tweeted, pairing Simon and Garfunkel lyrics with an image of the needle.

Hello darkness my old friend I’ve come to talk with you again pic.twitter.com/LUbem5hVll

— andrew kaczynski (@KFILE) March 13, 2018

Gabe Fleisher, who writes the “Wake Up to Politics” newsletter, joked that he told himself he wouldn’t look to the needle for early results.

“Me now: refresh refresh refresh what does the needle say refresh,” he added.

Me twenty minutes ago: Early results don’t mean anything. I won’t start watching them until later.

Me now: refresh refresh refresh what does the needle say refresh

— Gabe Fleisher (@WakeUp2Politics) March 14, 2018

Before Tuesday’s race, The New York Times posted an explainer on how the needle works.

Shortly after 9 p.m, the needle estimated that Saccone has a 60 percent chance of winning. Then, minutes later, the needle swung back to an even race — showing where it got its anxiety-inducing reputation for political observers.

Gah! The hellish NYTimes election night dial is back for PA18—the great American PTSD meter https://t.co/tWoRPsn5Wq pic.twitter.com/b2RN1Xu1AU

— Philip Gourevitch (@PGourevitch) March 14, 2018

Lamb pulls ahead

Updated at 8:47 p.m.

Lamb is extending his lead over Saccone, though it’s still very early in the night.

The Pennsylvania Democrat is leading by more than 20 points — 60.7 to 38.8 percent — with 5 percent of precincts reporting.

Results still have yet to roll in from precincts in Washington and Westmoreland counties.

Some elections experts say that the early results are so far a good sign for Lamb and that he’s running ahead of expectations in Greene County.

Good news for Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in fragmentary returns white, working class, traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 14, 2018

Optimism at Lamb party

Updated at 8:45 p.m.

The mood at the Lamb election watch party is enthusiastic as Democrats sense an upset in the making. They are cheering enthusiastically at every positive mention of Lamb on CNN — the cable news network of choice at the party in the ballroom of a suburban hotel.

Lamb supporters are touting homemade signs, including a silhouette of a lamb with “Conor” written on it and pictures of Lamb’s face taped onto popsicle sticks.

Attendees include Frank Snyder, a top official at the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, and John Fetterman, the mayor of a small steel town who sought the Democratic Senate nomination in 2016.

First results coming in

Updated at 8:33 p.m.

The first returns are in, and Lamb has taken an early lead with 1 percent of precincts reporting.

Lamb leads Saccone by 5 points, 52 percent to 47.2 percent. The results come from Allegheny and Greene counties.

Some political observers predict that if Lamb wants to pull off an upset, he’ll need to win Allegheny with at least 58 percent of the vote and Greene with at least 41 percent of the vote.

ICYMI: Here’s what I’d estimate Conor Lamb (D) needs in each #PA18 county to win tonight:

Allegheny: 58%
Greene: 41%
Washington: 47%
Westmoreland: 43%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

▪️ ALLEGHENY COUNTY
– 40% of all votes in #PA18 district
– Lamb must win it by at least +16 to have a shot to win overall.

▪️ WESTMORELAND
– 30% of votes
– Saccone must win by more than +15

▪️ WASHINGTON
– 20% of votes
– Saccone must win by more than +7 https://t.co/rHUrO7wu2o

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 14, 2018

Republicans rush to tamp down expectations

Updated at 8:12 p.m.

Faced with the prospect of an upset defeat, Republicans are scrambling to lower expectations by raising concerns about their candidate.

Republicans worried from the start about whether Saccone could raise enough money to mount a competitive race — concerns that turned out well-founded, since Lamb raised more than four times as much as Saccone.

As the polling has moved away from Saccone, Republicans have responded by criticizing him — a move that, not coincidentally, would pin any blame on the candidate instead of voters’ mood toward the party or President Trump.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), poured millions into the district. But in a Tuesday interview with The Wall Street Journal, Congressional Leadership Fund chief Cory Bliss blasted Saccone.

“In this environment, bad candidates and bad campaigns won’t cut it,” he said.

On Monday, Pennsylvania Republican Party chairman Val DiGiorgio referred to the district as a “Democrat district” in an interview with Fox News, even though the district regularly votes Republican at the federal level.

Even Saccone himself tried to lower expectations on Tuesday as he cast his ballot, saying that Democrats have thrown “everything” at the district — although Democrats have been massively outspent by Republicans.

Polls close

Updated at 8 p.m.

Polls are now closed.

It’s unclear how quickly results will roll in, but some political observers believe it’ll be an earlier night since there aren’t many early and absentee votes to count.

Have a feeling tonight won’t be *that* late a night. There are extremely few early/absentee votes in PA, meaning we should be able to match #PA18 precinct results to past results fairly quickly & see what’s up.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 13, 2018

Special election spending breakdown

Updated at 7:55 p.m.

A total of $18 million has been invested in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th district, according to Issue One, a nonprofit group that tracks campaign finance.

Democrats were massively outspent by Republicans. GOP outside groups spent $11 million on the race compared to Democrats who spent $2 million.

Of that outside spending, about 70 percent of it has been on negative ads.

Despite the disparity in outside spending, Lamb dominated in candidate fundraising, outraising his opponent by nearly $3 million. Lamb raised $4.2 million, while Saccone brought in $1.2 million.

A disappearing district

Updated at 6 p.m.

The special election has captivated the political world and drawn millions of dollars to western Pennsylvania. But within a matter of months, the 18th District will no longer exist in its current form.

That’s because Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court redrew the state’s congressional lines in its gerrymandering case. While Republicans are currently challenging it, the new map will likely hold and transform the district into a more conservative seat.

No matter what the outcome is tonight, both Lamb and Saccone will need to scramble to run again since the filing period closes in a week.

Saccone has said that, win or lose, he’ll run again in the district. And he’s already started circulating petitions.

Lamb is still a mystery. He has said he will run again, but it remains an open question of which district. If he runs again for this seat, he’ll face a much steeper battle.

It’s much more likely he will run in a neighboring district that has become friendlier for Democrats since the redistricting. But he’ll be up against a sitting lawmaker, GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus.

Even with the district disappearing, though, Tuesday night’s race has the potential to have a major impact on the midterms, especially if Democrats pull off an upset.

Snowfall picking up

Updated at 4:15 p.m.

Election day started with a series of minor snow flurries, but now the snow is picking up in the Pittsburgh-area district, threatening to scare some voters away from the polls.

The snowfall focused on the eastern area of the district, which is considered more Republican.

Speaking to reporters in the afternoon outside a polling place in Westmoreland County, Lamb told reporters he doesn’t expect the snow to impact voter turnout.

Lamb takes his grandmother to the polls

Updated at 12:15 p.m.

And now we have @ConorLambPA helping his grandmother to the car after she voted. Her husband, Thomas, was the former Democratic Majority Leader in the Pennsylvania State Senate #pa18 pic.twitter.com/dLk6PjOzI2

— Ben Kamisar (@bkamisar) March 13, 2018

Lamb leads in polls

Updated at 11:30 a.m.

Polls on the eve of the election found Lamb, a former federal prosecutor, leading Saccone. Democrats are hoping that a victory, or even a narrow loss, in the solidly Republican district will give more credibility to the idea that Democrats are about to take back the House in a wave election — and maybe prompt a few Republicans to retire instead of run for reelection.

The winner of the special election will serve out the remainder of ex-Rep. Tim Murphy’s (R) term through November. Murphy, a vocal opponent of abortion rights, resigned from the seat in October after reports that he asked his mistress to have an abortion.

Brett Samuels and Jacqueline Thomsen contributed

Tags Brian Schatz Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Keith Rothfus Nancy Pelosi Paul Ryan Tim Murphy