Third party could result in Trump 2024 win: think tank

A substantive third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election would likely benefit former President Trump, according to a recent report from center-left think tank Third Way.

While Trump’s “die-hard” supporters are unlikely to defect from the former president, the Democratic base is much less loyal and represents an ideal target for third-party candidates, who typically fall in the center or the far-left, according to the report released on Thursday.

“Anyone backing a third-party candidate should be clear eyed: they are not establishing a new political faction, because their candidate is not going to win,” Aliza Astrow, a senior political analyst from Third Way, said in the report. “Rather, they are creating a spoiler who will help elect Donald Trump.”

Trump’s supporters appeared to remain loyal between the 2016 and 2020 elections, with the former president even managing to increase his raw vote total in 2020, the report noted. 

“Pundits spent years waiting for Trump’s base to leave him, either by abandoning the GOP and supporting Democrats, or by staying home on Election Day. But they won’t,” Astrow added. “The Trump base is far more loyal than [President] Biden’s coalition.”

Given Trump’s committed base, the report instead pointed to decreased third-party support as making the difference between Biden’s win in 2020 and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016.

Trump announced his third bid for the presidency last month, in the wake of the GOP’s disappointing performance in the midterm elections. Several other Republicans have hinted that they may challenge the former president for the nomination, but Trump remains the only candidate to have officially announced.