Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts GOP control of Senate with 51 seats

The nonpartisan election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball is predicting the GOP will take control of the Senate with 51 seats ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.

The updated prediction, published on Monday by the University of Virginia’s Department of Politics, noted that the Senate races in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania remain “jump balls”; however, the handicapper shifted its rating in Pennsylvania and Georgia to “leans Republican” and shifted the Nevada Senate race from a toss-up to “leans Democratic.”

The new ratings underline the importance of the Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada races to control of the Senate next year.

In Pennsylvania, polls have shown Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) neck-and-neck with Republican Mehmet Oz, while Sen. Raphael Warnock has a slight edge over GOP nominee Herschel Walker in Georgia.

“Basically, we just think the environment is not conducive to Democrats holding the Senate. Could they? Absolutely,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball said in its report, adding that it has “zero temptation” to pick against Republicans in close races such as North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.

“But we think the Republicans, despite this cycle’s challenges, could and should win the Senate. So we are leaning enough seats to them to get them to 51, their magic number for control,” the report added. 

The election handicapper said it was shifting its Nevada prediction in favor of incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Republican challenger Adam Laxalt after Nevada Independent journalist Jon Ralston predicted a Cortez Masto win.

“It is also worth remembering that Nevada is the bluest of the core Senate battlegrounds,” it added.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also predicts the GOP will easily win a majority in the House, gaining 24 seats in the chamber. And it shifted its rating for four of the six state gubernatorial elections from a “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”

The report said that factors such as anger about the conservative Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and the unpopularity of former President Trump could help blunt Democratic losses.

“To the extent these factors matter, our best guess is that they end up imposing some limitations on the size of GOP gains this year,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote. “That’s reflected in our projections, which we think represent a good but not necessarily great night for Republicans.”