Five midterm races that will hold big lessons for 2024 and beyond

There is exactly one week to go before Election Day, and most of the attention is focused on the tightest races in the fierce fight for the Senate.

But some contests will be important for other reasons, providing crucial snapshots of where American politics stand right now, or offering clues toward 2024 and beyond.

Here are some of the most significant match-ups.

Nevada and the battle for Latino voters

Republican Nevada Senate candidate Adam Laxalt is looking to oust the Democratic incumbent. in a tight race.

Nevada gives Republicans their best chance of taking a Senate seat away from Democrats. 

Incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has never looked safe. Most recent polls have given her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, a small edge. In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average on Monday afternoon, Laxalt was ahead by a single point.

Whichever way the race tips, political pros will be mining the results for signs of further erosion, or stabilization, in Democratic support among Latino voters.

Democrats are already concerned about signs of softening Latino support elsewhere in the nation, especially south Florida and Texas’s Rio Grande Valley.

Cortez Masto is the first Latina senator in U.S. history, and her platform includes strong support for comprehensive immigration reform.

Laxalt, whose grandfather served as a U.S. senator and as Nevada’s governor, has hit out at the senator and President Biden for what the Republican’s TV ads brand as “border chaos.”

Laxalt has been competing hard for Latino voters, including with Spanish-language ads and Latinos Con Laxalt events. He argues that Latino voters are responsive to the Republican promises of economic growth and opportunity,

Cortez Masto should still take most of the Latino votes cast, but the margin will be vital. 

The last two Democratic presidential nominees, Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, carried Latinos in Nevada by 26 points and 31 points respectively, according to exit polls.

If Cortez Masto can only eke out a much narrower margin, it will probably spell doom for her — and cause consternation to Democrats across the country.

Florida and DeSantis’s 2024 hopes

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to have an easy win in November.

In theory, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) might have faced a tough reelection campaign.

The governor riles up liberals on a whole host of issues, the most explosive recent example being the flights of migrants he organized to Martha’s Vineyard, Mass. 

DeSantis’s support for legislation restricting the teaching of sexuality in schools fueled another furor, and he and Biden tangled bitterly over the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite all that, DeSantis is well ahead of his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Charlie Crist. 

Crist is a former governor — and a former Republican — but DeSantis leads by more than 12 points in the RCP average.

A resounding victory for the incumbent governor would strengthen his hand as speculation mounts about a 2024 presidential bid. 

DeSantis is widely seen as the only Republican who could give former President Trump a run for his money for the GOP nomination. If Trump were to take a pass on the race, DeSantis would be the instant front-runner.

Florida has begun to lean red but only by narrow margins. DeSantis won his first race for governor by less than 1 percentage point in 2018, and Trump carried the state over Biden by roughly 3 points in 2020. 

In that context, a double-digit victory for DeSantis would be a powerful data point as his allies make the argument that he is the most electable Republican nationwide in 2024.

Given DeSantis’s strength, it’s no surprise that tensions are rising between him and Trump.

Trump will hold a rally in Miami on Nov. 6, just two days before Election Day. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who is expected to win reelection over Democratic Rep. Val Demings, will be in attendance. 

DeSantis, according to multiple media reports, was not invited.

Arizona and election denialism

Former President Donald Trump embraces Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake at a rally.

Democrats have sought to make Trump an issue in this election, particularly in relation to his fictitious claims of election fraud in 2020 and his penchant for inflammatory language.

So far, it doesn’t appear like the argument is going to carry the day, at least beyond the Democratic base.

The prime example is Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Arizona. 

Lake, a fervent Trump supporter, has repeatedly asserted that the 2020 election was illegitimate. She also suggested that her own primary race earlier this year might in some way be tainted — until it was clear she would win. “We out-voted the fraud,” she claimed.  

In a mid-October interview with Jon Karl of ABC News, Lake was notably equivocal about whether she would accept the results in the general election this year.

Pressed by Karl on whether she would acknowledge her own defeat, if it occurred, Lake replied that she would do so only “as long as it’s fair, honest and transparent.”

Even so, Lake is almost 4 points clear of her Democratic opponent, secretary of State Katie Hobbs, in the RCP average.

She has been helped to that position by her closeness to Trump, who endorsed her during the primary campaign, and by her media skills as a former TV news anchor. 

Perhaps most important of all, Biden’s approval ratings in the Grand Canyon State are dismal, with 39 percent of registered voters backing him and 54 percent disapproving of his performance in a late September Marist poll.

A Lake victory would be a huge boost for Trump and Trumpism. 

It would also chill the blood of Democrats and others concerned about the trajectory of American democracy.

Ohio and Democrats’ quest to shore up blue-collar support

Tim Ryan and J.D. Vance have been neck-and-neck throughout their whole race for the senate spot in Ohio.

One of the few bright spots for Democrats this year has been in Ohio, where Rep. Tim Ryan (D) has been more competitive than many Beltway pundits expected in his Senate race against Republican J.D. Vance.

Ohio was a bellwether for decades but has been trending sharply Republican in recent years. President Trump carried the state by around 8 points in both 2016 and 2020.

Ryan has rarely been more than 2 or 3 points adrift of Vance in the polling averages. 

He has stayed in contention by stressing his own modest roots in the Youngstown area and by making plain his differences from the more progressive elements of his own party, especially on the toxic topic of “Defund the Police.” 

Ryan, notably, has also said that he doesn’t believe Biden should run again in 2024.

None of this may be enough to carve out a victory, given the headwinds Ryan faces. 

He is currently 2 points behind in the RCP average, while data and polling site FiveThirtyEight gives Vance close to an 80 percent chance of prevailing. 

People close to Ryan are sore that the national Democratic Party did not provide him with more financial back-up even as a super-PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has spent around $28 million to buttress Vance.

In any event, whether Ryan wins or loses, other Democrats will look keenly at the result to see how well he does with working-class voters. 

If he performs strongly, his campaign could provide a template for other races in the future.

Michigan and the fight over abortion rights

Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, left, during a rally.

The Michigan governor’s race is one of several that has been jangling Democrats’ nerves of late.

Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has seen her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon whittle away at a lead that stood in double digits in early October. 

Whitmer leads by 4.2 percentage points in the RCP average. One recent poll showed a tied race.

One of the starkest dividing lines between the candidates is on abortion. 

Whitmer is a staunch defender of abortion rights, Dixon just the opposite.

The incumbent governor has talked about the issue in raw terms. She has spoken publicly about being raped while in college and her fear of becoming pregnant as a result. She has also cast the battle to protect abortion rights in reference to her two daughters, who are young adults.

Dixon, by contrast, has indicated she opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest, and has called Whitmer’s position “extremely radical.”

The abortion issue will be especially salient in Michigan because voters will get the chance to have their say on a ballot measure — “Proposal 3” — that would amend the state constitution to enshrine the right to abortion.

Polling suggests most Michiganders want abortion to remain broadly legal. Abortion rights activists note their side won a broadly comparable vote in the more conservative state of Kansas over the summer.

If Whitmer winds up a comfortable victor in Michigan, it will be testament to the potency of the abortion issue. 

But if the race remains tight, or she loses, the lesson will be very different.