Lujan Grisham holds narrow lead in New Mexico governor’s race: poll

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) holds a 3-percentage point lead over Republican Mark Ronchetti in the New Mexico gubernatorial race, according to a new Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey released Monday.

The poll found Lujan Grisham leading Ronchetti 49 percent to 46 percent among very likely voters. Three percent said they were undecided. 

The poll shifts Lujan Grisham’s support to 50 percent and Ronchetti’s to 48 percent when the survey incorporates those who said they were undecided but were asked whom they were leaning toward at that time.

Still, an overwhelming majority of respondents expect the governor to win a second term. When respondents were asked whom they expected would prevail in the gubernatorial race setting aside the respondents’ preferred candidate, 58 percent said Lujan Grisham, while 42 percent said Ronchetti.

The last time New Mexico elected a Democrat for governor prior to Lujan Grisham’s 2018 win was back in 2006, when the state reelected then-Gov. Bill Richardson for a second term. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the seat as “lean Democrat.”

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that while Ronchetti held an edge in the 2nd Congressional District, the governor held an edge in the state’s other two districts. 

“Lujan Grisham holds a 51% majority of support in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, whereas Ronchetti’s base of support lies in the 2nd District where he holds a 53% majority,” he said.

The Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey surveyed 1,000 very likely voters between Oct. 25-28. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.02 percentage points.