Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts GOP control of House

The University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted on Wednesday that Republicans will notch the majority in the House with the November midterms now less than two weeks away.

The elections forecaster said it had reached 218 districts — the number needed for the GOP to control the majority in the House next cycle — where its ratings favored each House seat for the Republican in some way (“leans Republican,” “likely Republican” or “safe Republican.”)

Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted that the move came after they had moved four House seats from a “toss up” rating to a “leans Republican” rating: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) in California’s 27th Congressional District, Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, the House seat in New York’s 22nd Congressional District left open by retiring Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.) and the House seat in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District now open after Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) lost his primary. 

The elections forecaster noted that Oregon and New York have complicated matters for Democrats, with Oregon’s several open House seats giving Republicans an opportunity to make inroads in the state. Meanwhile, in New York, Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) — where recent polling has shown her lead over Republican challenger Lee Zeldin diminishing — could cost the 22nd Congressional District there. 

“One other factor in our decision to make Garcia and Herrell small favorites: It’s been very rare for non-presidential party incumbents to lose in recent midterms, although that advantage is likely mitigated to some degree by their districts getting more difficult through redistricting,” the elections forecaster noted. 

The November midterms are rapidly approaching as Democrats are trying to avoid as many losses in the House as possible. But Republicans are aided by the fact that inflation is still persistently high and gas prices have been back on the rise again. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted its elections forecast to predict that Republicans could take as many as 25 seats, up from a max of 20 seats.