Cook Political shifts GOP House outlook with wider margin of gains

Nonpartisan election handicapper The Cook Political Report announced on Tuesday that it is slightly shifting its outlook of Republicans winning 10 to 20 seats to instead winning as many as 25 seats.

Dave Wasserman, U.S House editor for The Cook Political Report, said the election handicapper was changing the ratings of six House districts in Republicans’ favor: Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) from lean Democrat to toss-up, Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) from lean Democrat to toss-up, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) from lean Democrat to toss-up, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) from lean Democrat to toss-up and Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) from solid Democrat to likely Democrat. 

A separate race in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, to fill the seat of outgoing Rep. Ron Kind (D), moved from lean Republican to likely Republican. Wasserman noted that all six House seats were won by President Biden in the last election.

“In blue states where Roe v. Wade is certain to remain law, Republicans have been much more effective in channeling voter anger towards Democrats, who are effectively ‘double incumbents’ at the state/federal levels. They’ve had an easier time there focusing voters’ attention on rising inflation and crime – aided, of course, by news footage of tent cities in Portland and people being shoved onto subway tracks in New York,” Wasserman wrote.

He also noted in the cases of Spanberger and Maloney, the pair have encountered challenges in their states’ redrawn electoral maps, forcing them into districts where they have had to reintroduce themselves to the majority of residents. 

Meanwhile, four races were shifted in Democrats’ favor: Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D-Alaska) from toss-up to lean Democrat, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) from likely Republican to lean Republican, Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) from toss-up to lean Democrat and North Carolina’s open 1st Congressional District from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.

Wasserman said that all of those districts were won by Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

“In red and purple states, many Democrats are still running impressively ahead of President Biden’s ratings and remain in strong contention,” Wasserman said, adding that in those states “Democrats have highlighted threats to abortion access to boost their own’s base turnout and paint Republicans as extreme.”