Vance, Ryan separated by 1 point in new Ohio Senate poll

Ohio Senate candidates J.D. Vance (R) and Tim Ryan (D) are separated by just 1 percentage point in a new Marist poll, a dead heat within the survey’s margin of error.

The poll released Monday found Vance garnered the support of 46 percent of registered voters compared to Ryan’s 45 percent, the same figures the pollster recorded in September. Eight percent were undecided.

Among respondents who indicated they definitely plan to vote, the nominees were tied at 47 percent support each.

Observers are closely eyeing Senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada as some of this year’s most competitive contests in determining control of the upper chamber, but the poll is the latest indication that the Ohio race is still in play for either party.

“This open seat in Ohio has attracted national attention because it is so competitive,” Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement. “Although both candidates have become more disliked since Marist’s poll last month, there are still about one in four voters who have yet to form an opinion.”

A USA Today-Suffolk University poll earlier this month found Vance holding a 2-point lead over Ryan, while a poll from Emerson College and The Hill also released this month found Vance with a 1-point lead.

Those two surveys and the new Marist poll all suggest a close race, with the gap between the candidates falling within the polls’ margins of error.

The Marist survey found that among independents, Vance and Ryan are also tied at 41 percent. But just over two weeks until Election Day, 16 percent of independents indicated they were undecided.

Among those who indicated a preference for Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” or Ryan, who represents Ohio’s 13th Congressional District, nearly two-thirds said they strongly support their choice.

The new poll also found an increasing number of voters are viewing the candidates unfavorably compared to Marist’s September survey.

Vance’s favorability rating clocked in underwater, with 34 percent holding a favorable view while 41 percent held an unfavorable view. Twenty-six percent hadn’t heard of the Republican nominee or were unsure of how to rate him.

When asked about Ryan, 37 percent of respondents provided a favorable opinion, compared to 36 percent who gave an unfavorable opinion. Twenty-seven percent said they couldn’t rate the Democratic nominee.

The poll was conducted Oct. 17-20 among 1,141 registered Ohio voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.