Campaign Report — Trump’s lasting impact on the GOP

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.   

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood, Julia Manchester, and Caroline Vakil. Someone forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.

It’s Trump’s party now

The Hill’s Max Greenwood breaks down the six ways former President Trump has changed the GOP, touching on him turning the party against the mainstream media, launching vitriolic attacks inside and outside of the party, sparking opposition to institutions, fueling skepticism about elections, demanding fealty by those within the party, and changing the GOP’s global outlook.

It’s not unusual for a former president to have an impact on their political party, but Trump stands apart from former leaders in how he has influenced the party from policy to rhetorical style. And the former president still ranks first among possible GOP presidential contenders for 2024, an indicator of just how much sway he continues to have over the party.

The fighting spirit: “In the past, if someone like Mitt Romney or Todd Akin made a snafu on the stump, the Republicans would let the opposition drag them down,” Ford O’Connell, a Trump-aligned Republican strategist told Max. “The No. 1 chief thing that he has given the party is a backbone to fight, not only the Democrats but anyone who wants to bring them down, then not back down when the fear mongering gets turned up to a 10.”

As Max notes, Trump has influenced the way Republicans think about international involvement and alliances like NATO, the authenticity of elections, trade with other countries, the credibility of American institutions like the FBI and the media. Though Republicans might not always agree with Trump’s rhetoric all the time on some of these issues, members of the party see Trump’s ability to address under-the-surface problems in a way that opens itself for more national dialogue.

“There have always been problems in the system,” Keith Naughton, a veteran Republican strategist, told Max about the electoral system. “Nobody wanted to touch it, but it was bubbling beneath the surface and Trump kind of brought it to light. He brought it to the fore, made it possible to discuss it and for people to express what they really thought about it.” 

Something else to note: While Trump has seen a mixed track record among his endorsed candidates this cycle, his endorsements themselves have pulled many of his candidates across the finish line. That’s especially true in key battleground Senate races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and elsewhere.

One thing is for certain: Whether or not Trump will seek the GOP presidential nomination in 2024, whoever wins it will likely be influenced by his mark on the Republican Party.

More debates on their way

The midterm debate marathon is continuing into next week…

Florida: On Monday, incumbent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will face off against former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist in that state’s gubernatorial debate after it was delayed earlier this month due to Hurricane Ian. The forum comes after the start of mail-in voting and after early voting has started in various parts of the state. Most polls show DeSantis leading the race. You can watch the debate on WPEC-TV at 7pm ET on Monday.  

Pennsylvania: Then on Tuesday, Pennsylvania’s Lt. Gov. John Fetterman will face off against his GOP rival Dr. Mehmet Oz in that state’s highly anticipated Senate debate. Unlike many other midterm debates, this forum could stand to play a deciding factor in the race given the state of Fetterman’s health after suffering a stroke earlier this year and the neck-and-neck polls. The Hill’s parent company Nexstar Media Inc. will host and air the debate at 8pm ET on Tuesday. The telecast will be held at Nexstar’s WHTM in Harrisburg. Sixty-two other counties will air the debate.

Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Republican Joe O’Dea will also go head to head in their own debate that evening at 8pm ET and will be available to watch through Colorado Public Radio on Tuesday. They’ll meet again for another debate on Friday that’ll be streamed through 9News at 9pm ET.

Alaska: On Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll be looking to Alaska as the state holds debates for it’s at-large district on Wednesday with its senatorial debate for Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) seat the next day. Both will take place at 11pm ET and streams can be found through Alaska Public Media.

New Hampshire: And don’t forget about the Granite State, where Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Republican Don Bolduc will face off in a second debate on Thursday which will be aired by NH PBS and take place at 12pm ET.

Dems grumble about Obama

The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports that Democrats are grumbling behind closed doors about former President Obama’s midterm campaign schedule, complaining that it’s not packed enough.

While Obama is slated to stump for candidates in Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin and attended four fundraisers in August and September, many Democrats argue that his efforts are too little too late in the year when the party is expected to face heavy headwinds.

“I think a lot of people have said, ‘Where’s Obama?’” one Democratic strategist told The Hill. “He shouldn’t just be the closer. He’s still seen as the party’s rock star.”

Obama’s team pushes back: However, Obama’s team is maintaining that he is doing his part this midterm cycle.

“Given the high stakes of this year’s midterm elections, President Obama wants to do his part to help Democrats win next month,” said Hanna Hankins, who serves as communications director to the former president. “This is why he headlined four finance events in recent months for the key campaign committees and will campaign in targeted states as part of the Democrats final GOTV stretch.

“He looks forward to stumping for candidates up and down the ballot, especially in races and states that will have consequences for the administration of the 2024 elections,” Hankins added.

HALEY HEADS TO IOWA

Former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley is hitting the campaign trail for Republican candidates in Iowa next week as apart of Winning for Women Action Fund’s “Women on a Mission Tour.” On Tuesday, Haley will campaign with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Reps. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson in Davenport and Cedar Rapids.

Winning for Women Action Fund is also set to make stops in Indiana and Virginia. Virginia first lady Suzanne Youngkin and GOP congressional candidate Jen Kiggans are slated to appear at the events in that state. In Indiana, GOP congressional candidate Jennifer Ruth Green will be a featured speaker at the group’s event.

POLL WATCH

On the issues: A CNBC All-America Economic Survey out on Thursday showed that respondents believe Republicans will do a better job than Democrats of bringing down inflation (42 percent to 27 percent), dealing with taxes (40 percent to 29 percent), reducing the federal deficit (36 percent to 25 percent) and creating jobs (43 percent to 33 percent.) 

Meanwhile, respondents believed Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on looking out for the middle class (42 percent to 38 percent) and reducing the cost of healthcare (44 percent to 28 percent.)

On Biden’s approval rating: That same survey found that President Biden’s approval rating has made some gains since July. In July, his approval rating sat at 36 percent, but this latest survey found his approval rating at 46 percent. His approval rating for his handling of the economy made some momentum, too. His approval rating for his handling of the economy is now at 40 percent, compared to 30 percent in July.

AD WATCH

First in The Hill: The Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is out with a new ad targeting Nevada Senate candidate Adam Laxalt (R) on the issue of abortion as Democrats bet that the issue will be key moving issue for voters.

“I tell my girls if you can dream it, you can do it. I take it incredibly personally that Adam Laxalt is working to take away the rights of my daughters. Adam Laxalt actually celebrated when Roe v. Wade was overturned,” a Nevada mother says in the 30-second ad called “Girls,” which was first shared with The Hill. “He would let states outlaw abortion even for rape victims. Adam Laxalt called Roe v. Wade a ‘joke.’ And it made me feel horrified that we are going backwards in time. My daughters deserve better than this.”

Over in California: The Republican super PAC Defending Main Street launched a six-figure radio ad buy for the California 22nd Congressional District race, which features a matchup between pro-impeachment Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas. The ad is expected to air in both English and Spanish.

“In California, we’re working harder. Because we have to. Double shifts. Later hours. And the money we make buys less and less. Fuel for our cars. Food for our tables. It all costs more. But when Central Valley families needed relief Rudy Salas was on vacation. While we worked ‘round the clock. Jet-Setter Salas took off on yet another all-expenses trip funded by shady special interests to the tune of eighty grand,” a narrator in the 60-second ad called “Jet-Setter Salas” says in part. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.