Campaign Report — Worry grows for Democrats ahead of midterms

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.   

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Democrats take off the rose-tinted glasses

With three weeks out from the November midterms, Democrats’ rose-tinted glasses are starting to come off and members of the party are coming to terms again with President Biden’s low approval ratings and questions about whether their midterm messaging will be enough to push them past the finish line in key races. 

Blame game: As The Hill’s Alex Bolton writes, Democrats are preparing for an “I told you so” moment as members of the party express concerns over the disconnect they believe Democrats are showing over how to talk to voters and their lack of focus in some cases on issues that are not related to abortion.  

Former President Obama, for example, suggested that Democrats can at times be a buzzkill, noting how members of the party can go “around scolding folks if they don’t use exactly the right phrase, or that identity politics becomes the principal lens through which we view our various political challenges.” 

Meanwhile, progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are arguing that abortion cannot be the only issue that Democrats lean on in the midterms. Some believe Democrats actually have a compelling argument to make on economy and inflation, suggesting it’s not just a Republican-preferred midterm issue. 

Key quote: “When the country is at two-thirds wrong track and by most accounts Republicans are up by 15 to 20 points on the economy … we got to change that,” Faiz Shakir, a Democratic strategist and senior adviser to Sanders, told Alex. “We got to at least make the compelling economic argument about what [Republicans] want to do to Social Security, what they want to do to Medicare, what they want to do to student debt relief and prescription drug costs.” 

The president question: While Democrats are trying to navigate the last three weeks of the midterms, The Hill’s Amie Parnes also notes this morning that the party is again grappling with Biden’s low approval ratings and the fact that the president is being seen as a drag in key midterm races amid concerns over high inflation and a possible recession. 

Consider a recent New York Times/Siena College poll out this week, which showed 58 percent saying they disapproved of Biden’s job as president compared to 39 percent who approved. It also showed close to two-thirds of likely voters who believed the country was on the wrong track (64 percent), compared to 24 percent who said they were on the right track. And 49 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote in their district for the Republican candidate if the election was held today, compared to 45 percent who said the same for Democrats.  

Some strategists suggest, however, that voters might be differentiating Democratic candidates in key battleground races and Biden. 

“What’s been interesting this cycle is watching candidates like Fetterman and Warnock in strong positions while Biden’s numbers have dragged,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer told Amie.  

“It seems like voters were already mentally divorcing Biden’s performance from that of Democratic Senate and House candidates, which means he’s not and hasn’t been a drag, but he’s also not helping bolster poll numbers for the Mandela Barnes of the world.” 

Warnock goes on offense

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is going on offense against Republican contender Herschel Walker as the November midterms draw closer, a key shift in tone for the senator who has sought to present himself as bipartisan and more reserved.  

But as The Hill’s Max Greenwood writes, it’s giving some Democrats a sense of relief given the stakes of the Georgia Senate election, which will play a determining role in which party controls the Senate next cycle. Many are already anticipating a 2020 déjà vu with a runoff in December.  

“Warnock is a singular figure. He’s a pastor, he’s a person of faith, he’s a man of principles,” Democratic strategist Jon Reinish told Max. “But you have to fight, and you have to score knockout punches, and you have to make sure you’re consistently defining your opponent as part of your closing argument, and Warnock finally seems to be doing that now.” 

The senator, for example, took opportunities during a debate this past weekend that was not attended by Walker and a media appearance after casting his ballot the next day to target the GOP candidate over his credentials and domestic abuse allegations leveled at Walker.  

“I think a lot of what voters appreciate about Raphael Warnock is that he’s a good man; he doesn’t play into the shit show,” one Democratic strategist who has worked on Senate campaigns told Max. “But at some point, there’s no payoff for being nice, especially when Republicans are going to do everything they can to bring you down.”

RUBIO, DEMINGS GO HEAD TO HEAD IN FLORIDA SENATE DEBATE

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Democratic contender Val Demings traded swipes and jabs over their records and spotlighted key midterm issues like abortion and gun violence in addition to foreign policy in their first and only televised debate on Tuesday. 

If you missed the debate, Max Greenwood has you covered on some of the key takeaways from the event, including how Rubio sought to portray Demings as a socialist while the congresswoman suggested the senator’s record was unimpressive.  

Demings is looking to unseat the two-term senator, though the congresswoman faces an uphill battle. A Spectrum News/Siena College poll released earlier this month showed Rubio leading Demings 48 percent to 41 percent respectively.  

Meanwhile, there’s several other debates happening this evening, including the latest Oregon gubernatorial debate between Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and independent Betsy Johnson. And over in Oklahoma, Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) will be facing off against Democrat Joy Hofmeister.  

POLL WATCH:

On Ohio: A Cygnal poll released on Wednesday found 47 percent of likely general election voters in Ohio say they will vote for Senate hopeful J.D. Vance (R) compared to 43 percent who said the same for Democrat Tim Ryan.  

On Biden: A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Tuesday found that President Biden’s approval rating is at 40 percent, close to its lowest since he’s taken office.  

On the issue: A Politico-Morning Consult poll out on Wednesday showed that a majority believe their vote will heavily be swayed by candidates’ views on inflation and the economy. Eighty-one percent of respondents said that they expect the candidates’ views on the economy will play a major role in deciding who they vote for.

AD WATCH:

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) is out with a new ad today targeting Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in a 30-second spot called “Worse With Whitmer.” The ad targets Whitmer on crime and job losses in the state while touting Republican candidate Tudor Dixon as an alternative.  

The House Majority PAC, which is aligned with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), released two new ads today with one in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and one in Oregon’s 6th Congressional District. The 30-second ad in Nebraska called “Hog” targets Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), tying him to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his ties to the insurance and drug industries. The 30-second ad in Oregon called “Rules” targets Republican Mike Erickson in the state’s newly drawn district over previous DUI charges and notes that Democrat Andrea Salinas’ father was a cop.  

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.