Campaign Report — Will Georgia head to another runoff?

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Deja vu in Georgia?

Nearly two years ago, Georgia found itself at the center of the U.S. political universe when two Senate races – one special election and a regularly scheduled one – ended in runoffs and, consequently, left control of the Senate undecided. 

Two months later, Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) emerged victorious from those runoffs, giving Democrats the 50 seats they needed to take control of the upper chamber.  

Now, with polls showing a tight race between Warnock and Republican nominee Herschel Walker, strategists and political observers are confronting the very real possibility that the Senate race in Georgia could once again head into overtime. 

The playing field: Despite Warnock leading Walker in most public polls for months, most surveys show Warnock falling short of the majority support he’ll need to clinch an outright victory in November. At the same time, allegations that Walker paid for his now-ex-girlfriend to have an abortion more than a decade ago haven’t appeared to derail his campaign entirely. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows the two candidates separated by just 4 percentage points. 

Also critical to the race is the presence of a Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, whom polls show scoring anywhere from 2 to 4 percent of the vote. While that may seem insignificant, it could be enough to prevent either Warnock or Walker from reaching the 50-percent-plus-one-vote margin needed to win the November election.  

“We’re hoping for the best, but it’s definitely something we are fully preparing for,” Stephen Lawson, a Republican strategist who is working with a Walker-aligned PAC, 34N22, told The Hill on Tuesday. 

“If it does end up going to a runoff, no matter who comes in first or second, I think it’s going to be a jump ball and I think there’s a good chance that it ends up deciding the fate of the Senate again. A Georgia runoff redux, if you will.”  

A quick turnaround: Unlike Georgia’s last runoffs, which took place more than two months after Election Day 2020, a new state elections law approved last year shortens the runoff period from nine weeks to four. If neither Warnock nor Walker win a majority on Nov. 8, they’ll head into a hectic month-long campaign sprint that will culminate in a Dec. 6 runoff election. 

Still time: Of course, Election Day is still nearly a month away and the Georgia Senate race has been anything but calm. For Walker, in particular, the final stretch before Election Day has been especially trying. While he’s denied the abortion allegations and threated to sue the news outlet that first reported them, the accusations have since snowballed. 

On Tuesday, The Washington Post’s Annie Linskey and Alice Crites reported that the woman whom Walker allegedly paid to have an abortion in 2009 had to “repeatedly press the former football star who is now the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia for funds to pay” for the procedure. In a separate interview with ABC News Live anchor Linsey Davis aired on Tuesday, Walker offered another denial of the allegations against him.  

“She’s lying. Yes, she’s lying. Yes, she’s lying,” he said, later adding: “Flat-out denial. Lie. Lie. Lie. Lie.” 

Meanwhile, a super PAC backing Walker is seeking to highlight domestic violence allegations against Warnock, launching a new ad on Tuesday featuring recently uncovered bodycam footage of the senator’s ex-wife during an altercation in March 2020. 

MAGA money starts flowing

Former President Trump is finally answering his party’s prayers.  

For months, top Republicans have expressed frustration that Trump and his main political vehicle have been sitting on well over $100 million rather than aiding GOP candidates in tough election bids. But just recently, a new Trump-sanctioned super PAC, MAGA Inc., has begun pouring money into competitive Senate races, giving Republicans what they hope will be a critical boost in the final weeks before Election Day. 

MAGA Inc., which was formed in late September by a group of Trump allies, has so far poured some $5 million into five competitive states with key Senate and gubernatorial races. Among them are Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.  

One Republican operative told The Hill’s Al Weaver this week that the super PAC is expected to spend in one or two more states. 

The wave of spending comes at a crucial time in the midterm cycle; Republicans across the country have been repeatedly outraised by their Democratic rivals, and despite expectations that 2022 will be a good year for the GOP, Democrats still have a promising chance at holding onto their Senate majority.  

Of course, there are still concerns. The ad spending from MAGA Inc. is coming particularly late in the campaign, raising questions about just how effective the efforts will be in pushing GOP candidates over the finish line next month. At the same time, outside groups typically reserve ad time earlier in the year in order to lock in better rates, and MAGA Inc.’s late play means the group is likely spending more to get less.  

Nevertheless, the late-breaking effort could prove poignant in tight races and help Trump further elevate his standing in the party. If Republicans win back the Senate majority next month, expect the former president to take credit.

THE MONEY RACE

Big money: The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the GOP’s House campaign arm, raised $42.3 million in the three month period between July 1 and Sept. 30, and ended the quarter with a record amount in the bank. The NRCC announced on Wednesday that it is heading into the final stretch of the 2022 midterm elections with a staggering $92.3 million in cash on hand.   

Meanwhile: Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), raised $73 million in the third quarter of 2022, pulling its total fundraising for the election cycle to $220 million. The group said that it began October with $114 million in the bank. 

Walker gets a boost: Walker, the Georgia Republican Senate nominee, saw his best day of fundraising on Tuesday, thanks in part to Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Walker’s campaign announced that he pulled in $450,000 in online donations after Cotton and Scott traveled to Georgia to stump for the former football star. The fundraising bump came as Walker continues to fight off allegations that he paid for his then-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009, despite casting himself as an ardent opponent of the procedure. 

POLL WATCH

In Texas: Election Day still isn’t looking great for former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), the Democratic nominee for Texas governor. Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a 4-point edge over O’Rourke – 49 to 45 percent – among registered voters in the state, according to a new Marist poll. While that’s still technically within the survey’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error, Abbott’s lead is even wider among those who say they definitely plan to vote this year; 52 percent of those voters support the incumbent, while 44 percent are backing O’Rourke. 

In Georgia: Warnock holds a 7-point lead over Walker in the Georgia Senate race, though the recent abortion allegations against the GOP candidate don’t appear to be shaking up the contest much. A new Quinnipiac University poll of the state found that 52 percent of likely voters in Georgia are standing behind Warnock, while 45 percent plan to support Walker. That’s pretty much the same as where the race stood last month, when the same poll found Warnock leading Walker 52 to 46 percent.  

In New Hampshire: New Hampshire voters appear poised to reelect two of their statewide incumbents in November, according to a new AARP poll. The poll, which was conducted by the firms Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, leading his Democratic rival Tom Sherman 55 to 41 percent, while Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) is polling ahead of her Republican opponent Don Bolduc at 52 to 45 percent. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.