Cook Political Report shifts Pennsylvania Senate race back to ‘toss up’

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved Pennsylvania’s Senate race back into its “toss up” category, less than two months after moving the contest into the “lean Democratic” column.

The nonpartisan election forecaster cited recent polls showing a tightening race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz.

An Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey released last week showed Fetterman’s lead over Oz shrinking from 4 points in August to 2 points in September. However, a USA Today-Suffolk University poll released on Tuesday showed Fetterman leading Oz by 6 percentage points, at 46 percent to 40 percent. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Fetterman leading by 4.3 points. 

Oz’s campaign also reported a significant fundraising boost in the third quarter. On Tuesday, the campaign announced it brought in $17.2 million during the reporting period, including a personal loan of $7 million. 

The latest fundraising numbers mark a major improvement for Oz, who reported raising $3.8 million in the second quarter. It’s not clear how much Fetterman raised this quarter, but last quarter his campaign brought in $11 million. 

“Our momentum is building every day and we’re uniting Republicans, Independents, and Democrats who want to see a change in Washington. We’re proud of our success this quarter — and we’re just getting started,” said Michael Adams, national finance director for Oz’s campaign. 

But Taylor notes the change in rating for the race does not necessarily mean Oz’s campaign is out of the woods. 

“There are still plenty of red-blinking warning signs for Republicans. Oz’s own approvals may have gotten a tad better in some polls, but he’s still underwater. And while Fetterman’s positives have been driven down, he still has clung to a lead and is right-side up, albeit narrowly, in many surveys,” Taylor writes.