Fetterman’s lead over Oz shrinks in Pennsylvania Senate race: poll

Democratic candidate John Fetterman’s lead over Republican Mehmet Oz is narrowing in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, according to a new Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey released Friday. 

The survey found that 45 percent of likely Pennsylvania general election voters backed Fetterman while 43 percent supported Oz, falling within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Eight percent said they were undecided, while 5 percent said they plan to vote for another candidate. 

The 2-point difference is down from Fetterman’s 4-point lead in the same survey last month and comes less than six weeks from Election Day.

But the latest Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey also found that regardless of who they support, 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters said they expect Fetterman to win. Forty-five percent said the same about Oz. 

Respondents were also asked about the stroke Fetterman suffered in May and Oz’s New Jersey residence.

Fifty-nine percent of Pennsylvania voters said Fetterman’s stroke will make no difference to them when they cast their ballot, marking a 9-point drop from voters who said the same in the August Pennsylvania survey. Twenty-seven percent of voters said the stroke makes them less likely to support Fetterman, while 14 percent said it makes them more likely to support the Democratic Senate candidate. 

When asked about Oz’s residence in New Jersey, 47 percent said it makes no difference to them, while 39 percent said it makes them less likely to vote for him. Fourteen percent said it makes them more likely to support Oz. The share of voters who said they are less likely to support Oz because of his residence has decreased by 12 points since the August Emerson College poll.

Other recent polling also showed Fetterman with a narrow lead. A Fox News poll released on Wednesday found that 45 percent of registered Pennsylvania voters said they’d vote for Fetterman if the Senate election was held today, compared with 41 percent for Oz, and a Muhlenberg College and Morning Call poll last week showed Fetterman with a 5-point lead.

On the other hand, the Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey found that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro has widened his lead over Republican candidate Doug Mastriano by 3 points since the August Emerson poll, to 51 percent to 41 percent. 

Meanwhile, President Biden has also seen a bump in the polls in the state. Forty-three percent of Pennsylvania voters said they approve of Biden’s job performance, while 51 percent said they disapproved. 

“Since last month, President Biden’s approval in Pennsylvania has increased by four points and his disapproval has dropped by six. This movement in favor of Democrats is not seen evenly in the race for US Senate and Governor, where Fetterman’s race is tightening and Shapiro’s lead is extending,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.

The Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey was conducted Sept. 23-26 among 1,000 likely Pennsylvania general election voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.