Budd holds 3-point lead over Beasley in North Carolina Senate race: poll

North Carolina Senate hopeful Rep. Ted Budd (R) is leading Democratic contender Cheri Beasley by 3 percentage points, according to a new Emerson College Polling-CBS17-The Hill survey released Tuesday.

The poll found that 46 percent of somewhat or very likely voters in North Carolina said they would vote for Budd, compared to 43 percent who said they would vote for Beasley. A separate 9 percent said they were undecided.

Budd’s support has fallen by 4 points since an Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey in April found him leading Beasley 50 percent to 46 percent in a hypothetical matchup.

The polling falls within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 3 percentage points, effectively tying the two candidates. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, suggested that Beasley holds an advantage over female voters, while Budd holds a more competitive edge among male voters.

“Budd leads among men by 16 points while Beasley leads among women by nine points. Notably, 81% of the undecided voters are women whose most important voting issue is abortion access (28%),” Kimball noted.

But the poll found that more respondents suspected Budd would prevail in November (56 percent) compared to Beasley (44 percent) when they were asked regardless of whom they supported, suggesting that voters think the Republican enjoys an advantage in the state.

The polling also found that former President Trump would beat President Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up in the state if the 2024 election were held today, with 47 percent saying they would vote for Trump and 42 percent backing Biden. A separate 8 percent said they would vote for someone else.

The November midterms are seven weeks away, and Beasley and Budd are running for North Carolina’s open Senate seat after Sen. Richard Burr (R) announced he would not be seeking reelection. The race is rated “lean Republican” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and Trump won the state in 2020 by 1 percentage point.

The Emerson College Polling-CBS17-The Hill survey was conducted between Sept. 15-16 with 1,000 somewhat or very likely voters polled. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.