Nevada Senate, governor races in dead heat: poll

The races for Nevada’s Senate seat and governor’s mansion are neck-and-neck roughly two months out from Election Day, according to an 8 News Now/Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Tuesday.

In the race for the state’s Senate seat, 42 percent of likely voters said they supported Republican candidate Adam Laxalt, while 41 percent said they supported Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.). Eleven percent said they were undecided and four percent said they planned to vote for someone else. 

Laxalt’s narrow lead falls within the poll’s plus or minus three percentage points margin of error, but the poll appears to show him making gains. A July KLAS TV-The Hill-Emerson College poll founnd Cortez Masto had 44 percent support to Laxalt’s 41 percent. That result also fell within the poll’s margin of error.

However, Tuesday’s poll was not all bad news for the incumbent Democrat. 

“Cortez Masto holds a 19-point lead among Hispanic voters and 27-point lead among Black voters, whereas Laxalt leads White voters by nine,” Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, wrote. 

And despite Laxalt’s lead, 54 percent of respondents said they expected Cortez Masto to win, while 46 percent of respondents said they expected Laxalt to win. 

The race for Nevada’s governor’s mansion is also a tie, with forty percent of likely voters saying they planned to vote for Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and Republican nominee Joe Lombardo, respectively. Twelve percent said they were undecided and four percent said they planned on voting for another candidate. 

Like Cortez Masto, a majority of voters said they expected Sisolak to win reelection. Fifty-two percent predicted Sisolak would win, while 48 percent said the same about Lombardo. 

And like the Senate race, the latest poll shows Lombardo making gains. The July poll showed Sisolak receiving 44 percent support, while 40 percent said they would vote for Lombardo. The lead was within the poll’s margin of error.

The state is also home to a number of highly contested House races, including in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th congressional districts. Tuesday’s poll showed Republicans leading Democrats on the generic ballot 46 percent to 43 percent. 

President Biden’s approval in the state remains low at 37 percent, while 53 percent said they disapprove of him. In a head-to-head matchup with former President Trump, Biden trails Trump 43 percent to 40 percent. 

The 8 News Now/Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted on September 8-10, 2022 among 1,000 somewhat or very likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.