Democrats see momentum shift ahead of midterms: poll

Tides may be shifting for Democrats ahead of this year’s midterm elections, as the party has seen an uptick over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot. 

A Wall Street Journal poll, released Thursday, found Democrats with a 3-point edge over Republicans when voters were asked which party they’d back in their congressional district if the midterms were held today, 47 to 44. 

Republicans were ahead 5 points as recently as March, when a similar Journal poll found 46 percent of voters would back a Republican, compared to 41 percent who said they’d cast their ballot for the Democrats.

Forty-four percent of voters in the new poll favorably viewed the Democratic Party as a whole, up 4 points since March. Forty percent viewed the Republican Party the same way, down 4 points since March.

The new report cites higher approval ratings for President Biden and increased support for Democrats among women, younger voters, Black and Hispanic voters and independent voters as key factors in the Democrats’ potential momentum shift.

Forty-five percent of voters reported a favorable view of Biden, up from 41 percent in March. 

By contrast, 39 percent reported the same of Trump, down from 41 percent in March.

The earlier poll had found independents favored a Republican candidate over a Democrat for Congress by 12 percentage points, but Democrats are now ahead by 3 points, 38 to 35 percent.

Abortion was a top issue for voters, along with the economy and inflation, but the recent Supreme Court decision overturning the right to abortion established in Roe v. Wade was the top issue cited as making voters more likely to cast their ballot in November’s congressional election. 

At 34 percent, abortion was more popular as a spur to vote than inflation and rising prices (28 percent), illegal immigration and border security (15 percent), gun violence (9 percent) and the FBI’s search of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home (8 percent).

Conducted Aug. 17-25 by Impact Research and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, the Journal poll surveyed 1,313 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.