Two months after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, it’s increasingly clear that abortion is having a bigger political impact than many pundits predicted.
The latest proof came in a House special election on Tuesday, as Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro in New York’s 19th District.
The contest was significant for two reasons.
First, Ryan placed abortion rights at the heart of his campaign. Second, the district is a classic bellwether, having been carried by former President Obama in 2012, former President Trump in 2016 and President Biden in 2020.
If Democrats can hold off the GOP there, it shows that they still have some hope of staving off Republican advances in November.
Ryan’s win came on the heels of a striking result in Kansas earlier this month. There, abortion rights campaigners prevailed by almost 20 points on a ballot measure revolving around whether the state constitution ought to protect a right to abortion.
The outcome was more striking because Kansas hasn’t backed a Democrat for president since 1964. Trump carried the state by almost 15 points in 2020.
Then there is the general tightening of nationwide polls to consider.
On June 24, the day of the Supreme Court decision, Republicans led Democrats by 3.4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average on the so-called generic ballot — a polling question that asks respondents which party they favor in congressional elections.
A week later, the GOP’s advantage had declined to 2.2 points. Today, the Republican edge has been all but extinguished, standing at one-fifth of a percentage point.
For abortion rights advocates, it’s evidence that what they predicated is coming true: The Supreme Court’s decision has transformed the landscape for the midterms.
“I feel like no one believed us for so long,” said Sam Lau, a spokesperson for Planned Parenthood Votes. “The majority of people support access to safe, legal abortion and they do not want the government to control these personal decisions that they want to be making themselves. That is absolutely a message that will resonate across all demographics.”
While activists such as Lau have a political interest in making those claims, there is data to back them up.
A series of polls has shown widespread disapproval of the court’s decision to strike down Roe, the 1973 decision that enshrined a constitutional right to abortion.
A Fox News poll earlier this month indicated 60 percent of registered voters disapprove of the court’s move while only 38 percent approve. A Monmouth University poll in the immediate aftermath of the decision produced an almost identical result — 60 percent disapproval and 37 percent approval.
An Economist-YouGov poll conducted in late July and early August found the overall margin somewhat closer, with 49 percent disapproving and 38 percent approving.
But the Economist survey also pointed to the issue’s potency with key groups.
Self-described independents disapproved of Roe being struck down by 51 percent to 30 percent. Among all women, those who disapproved outnumbered those who approved by 25 points. Even 23 percent of Republicans — almost 1 in 4 — disapproved.
Republicans would much prefer to fight the midterms on completely different issues: inflation, immigration and crime as well as the general performance of Biden, who continues to suffer from very low approval ratings.
But the New York special election looks like the canary in the coal mine in that regard.
Republican candidate Molinaro was far from an anti-abortion hard-liner — prior to the Supreme Court decision he had accepted Roe as settled law. He also sought to keep the spotlight on the economy and local issues.
Clearly, his efforts were not successful.
Some liberal strategists argue that voters are not buying the media framing of the issues in the midterms, in which topics such as inflation are “kitchen table issues,” whereas abortion is a more abstract matter of “values.”
“Abortion rights are everyday issues facing millions of Americans,” said Democratic operative Abigail Collazo. “Republicans are hoping people don’t know that. But people do know that. They know what issues impact them.”
Collazo also took issue with the idea that the salience of abortion varies depending upon the state and the extent to which abortion access is directly threatened.
“Americans do not view their rights and freedoms as being unique to their state,” she argued. “People move. They have families and friends and communities that cross state lines. Those sorts of boundaries do not make people less concerned about their access to health care — think of parents sending their kids to schools out of state.”
To be sure, the abortion issue is not a panacea to the problems Democrats are facing.
Republicans are still favored to take the House in November, though by a more modest margin than was thought likely a few months ago. GOP strategists continue to believe that the economy will have greater prominence in voters’ minds than any other issue.
There are, too, other issues that have helped Democrats’ fortunes edge up. Gas prices have declined from their peak, and earlier crises such as the infant formula shortage have faded.
Still, the signs are plain that abortion is reverberating.
A new analysis this week by a Democratic data firm found that several states are seeing a surge in female voter registration. The firm, TargetSmart Insights, found that woman had outregistered men by significant margins in states including Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all of which will see competitive statewide races in November.
Republicans might dismiss such statistics coming from a Democratic firm.
But the results at the polls in Kansas and New York are harder to dispute.
“The stakes are no longer hypothetical,” said Lau. “The issue of abortion, and reproductive rights and reproductive freedom, is being put at the forefront of campaigns across the country.”
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.