Democrats set to clash in brutal New York House primaries

Democrats are bracing for a set of high-profile New York House primaries on Tuesday that pit two top-ranking incumbents against each other in one district while attracting a field of a dozen candidates vying for an open seat in another.

In New York’s 12th Congressional District, Democrats Reps. Jerry Nadler (N.Y.) and Carolyn Maloney (N.Y.), chairs of the House Judiciary Committee and House Oversight Committee respectively, are facing off in a messy contest between two heavy-hitters with decades in Congress.

Redistricting and the shuffle that followed left an open seat in the 10th District, for which a dozen candidates are vying, including Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), who currently represents the 17th District, and Dan Goldman, the lead counsel in the first impeachment trial against former President Trump.

Both districts lean heavily Democratic, meaning the winner of the primaries is likely to prevail in the general election.

The state’s congressional primaries were delayed from their original June date after the state was unable to finalize its district maps in time. The final maps in turn set off a scramble among lawmakers deciding in which district to run.

The primary in the 12th District has put Democrats in a particularly awkward position, with voters being asked to choose between two powerful lawmakers with similar voting records. The new map merged the cores of their districts along the Upper East Side and the Upper West Side.

Progressive attorney Suraj Patel is also making a bid for the district, trying to convince New Yorkers to pick a fresh face to represent them.

In recent weeks, Nadler has surged ahead, with polls showing him with a double-digit lead over Maloney. He was also endorsed by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and won the coveted New York Times endorsement, which strategists say could prove consequential. 

Chris Coffey, a Democratic strategist who was raised in the 12th Congressional District and now lives in the 10th, said the timing of the primary could also advantage Nadler over Maloney because of the way the new district is drawn and the tendency of some New Yorkers to leave town for the summer.

“So a lot of folks that Carolyn relies on in a June primary or November election are just gone, and some of them will vote vie absentee and some of them won’t. And that you know, the same is true on the West Side, but it’s less pronounced on the West Side,” he said. “Again, not to make too big of a deal of the Times, but you know, the Time endorsement matters a lot.”

“And there’s no where it matters more than the Upper East and the Upper West Sides. And so I think there’ll be voters on the Upper East Side who read the Times and you know, if 10 percent of those people decide to switch their vote from Carolyn to Jerry, like that’s it. It’s over,” he added.

But Maloney has been hitting back, arguing against what she called an “old boys network.”

Bob Liff, a spokesperson for Maloney, said in an email to The Hill that Congress needed more strong women and touted the lawmaker’s accomplishments.

“With the Supreme Court bulldozing women’s rights, gutting New York’s gun laws and throwing roadblocks in the way of enforcing clean air and clean water laws, we need strong, effective, progressive women to fight for our rights and our futures,” Liff said.

Julian Gerson, co-campaign manager for Nadler, told The Hill that congressman had “a huge amount of respect” for Maloney but described the congressman’s voting history as a “record as a principal progressive,” noting that the Nadler supported the 2015 Iran deal and voted against the Iraq War and Patriot Act. 

 Maloney has supported both the Patriot Act and Iraq War, while she did not support the 2015 deal at the time. The Times editorial board noted those differences in its endorsement of Nadler.

Patel, meanwhile, told The Hill both Maloney and Nadler “are campaigning on accomplishments or press releases or statements, frankly, from 1998 and 2006 and 2009. Neither of them are talking about 2024 or 2026, or what New York needs today.”

While much of the attention has been on Maloney and Nadler, Coffey said Patel has run “a good campaign, a very fresh, energetic campaign,” and it could be a three-way race. 

Patel has twice gone head-to-head with Maloney in Democratic primaries, losing by single digits in 2020.

Bruce Gyory, another New York-based Democratic strategist, said the decision to choose between the candidates would be a tough one. 

“I get the sense that there’s a lot of — what is the phrase, wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth — to be biblical, and they don’t know how to choose. And that’s why I think the Times endorsement there could have a great impact, and I don’t get the sense there’s the same blowback to the Times endorsement that exists in the 10th,” he said.

“It’s almost akin to the difficulty of being a college admissions officer at a very prestigious college. You get all these applications in front of you. They all have similar GPAs and SATs and extracurriculars and recommendation letters, and they all look like brilliant young men and women, and how the heck do I choose?” he added.

The 10th District also saw significant upheaval after redistricting.  

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm who represents the 18th District, controversially opted to run in the 17th, currently represented by Jones. 

Jones, in turn jumped to the 10th district, which has since drawn a crowded field that also includes Goldman, New York State Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou; New York City Council Member Carlina Rivera and former New York City Comptroller Liz Holtzman, once a member of Congress.

An Emerson College Polling-PIX11-The Hill poll released earlier this week showed Goldman, a Levi Strauss & Co. heir who has poured millions into his own campaign, in the lead and 5 percentage points ahead Niou, who came in second.

Goldman has come under criticism from some of his opponents for channeling his own money in the race, and has also been accused of not being liberal enough. 

His campaign, however, brushed off those accusations and said that the former federal prosecutor will be running a “positive values-based campaign” and said “there is no ego in this.”

“He’s not [a] traditional politician. He hasn’t held elected office before, and it’s something that we’ve had to grow accustomed to, but it’s you know, it’s par for the course. And Dan, through all of it, is very much committed to keeping things positive … and, you know, let everybody else scrap it out and do whatever they want,” his campaign told The Hill. 

Others still see a viable path forward. 

“What we’re seeing with undecided voters, as they start to make up their minds, is they’re looking for a lot of things Yuh-Line represents, right? That essentially a candidate that’s not taking corporate PAC money, who isn’t spending $4 million out of his family wealth to fund his own campaign,” Max Burns, a spokesperson for Niou’s campaign, said. 

“They’re looking for someone who’s actually done the work and has passed legislation affecting this community. And on that front, Yuh-Line brings a really strong record from Albany.”

Alyssa Cass, a spokesperson for Rivera’s campaign, touted Rivera’s endorsements from several New York City borough presidents and groups, including ones tied to unions, and called her record on abortion “unparalleled compared to the rest of the field.”

Coffey said that here too, The New York Times’ endorsement of Goldman could make a difference. Coffey is unaffiliated with any campaign but has given money to Rivera and Jo Anne Simon, who serves in the New York State Assembly and is also running in the 10th District.

“If you consider yourself a little bit progressive and were a little bit skeptical of his self-financing and Levi Strauss, all that stuff and all of a sudden, you get your copy of the Times and it says ‘we think he’s … a good one nut, he’s a good one,’ … that’s going to help validate him for you,” Coffey said.