Democrats hold 4 point lead over Republicans on generic congressional ballot: poll

Democrats are leading Republicans by 4 percentage points on a generic congressional ballot, according to a new poll.

A Politico-Morning Consult poll released Wednesday found 46 percent of registered voters would choose the Democratic candidate compared to 42 percent who would choose the Republican if the election for Congress was held in their district today.

Twelve percent either said they did not know or had no opinion. 

The poll is the latest showing Democrats just outpacing their Republican counterparts on a generic congressional ballot. Another recent survey showed more respondents supporting the Democratic Party controlling Congress than the Republican Party.

The Politico-Morning Consult poll also shows that 42 percent of respondents approve of President Biden’s job as president, up 3 percentage points from a poll that Politico and Morning Consult released last week.

Democrats are expected to encounter several headwinds in November, including the president’s still-underwater approval ratings, inflation and the precedent that a first-term president’s party usually suffers some losses in the midterms.

But Democrats have some reasons to feel optimistic, too. Biden signed a sweeping climate, tax reform and health bill on Tuesday after Democrats passed the reconciliation package in Congress. It was considered a major feat for the party given previous failed attempts to pass a social spending bill. 

Recent data has also shown inflation has started to cool off, though it’s unclear if the trend will continue. A July jobs report that outpaced economists’ expectations is also considered a boost for Democrats.

The Politico-Morning Consult poll was conducted between Aug. 12 and Aug. 14 with 2,005 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.