Democrats hold edge in key state legislature generic ballots: poll

Democrats are holding an edge over Republicans on a generic ballot for the state legislature in three battleground states, according to a new poll.

The poll, commissioned by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) that was shared exclusively with The Hill, shows that Democrats have an edge in state legislature generic ballots in Michigan, Colorado and Nevada.

The poll found that Democrats hold a 5 percentage point lead over Republicans when respondents in Michigan were asked which candidate they would vote for in their district if the election for state legislature was held today.

Forty-eight percent of Michigan voters surveyed said they would vote for the Democratic candidate compared to 43 percent who said the Republican choice. Another 9 percent said they were unsure.

In Colorado, 48 percent of voters surveyed there said they would pick the Democratic candidate compared to 45 percent who said the Republican if the state legislature election was held today. 

And in Nevada, 46 percent said they would choose the Democrat while 43 percent said the Republican in a similar scenario.

The polling in Colorado and Nevada falls within their respective margins of error, meaning Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied in those states.

“This polling confirms that Democratic policies are broadly popular and the Republican agenda is out of step with a majority of voters,” DLCC President Jessica Post said in a statement. “As we’ve said from the beginning of the cycle, this midterm will be incredibly competitive for both Democratic and Republican-held legislatures.”

The recent polling could offer a boost of optimism for Democrats, who are still expected to face several headwinds heading into November. President Biden has been mired in low approval ratings and inflation is still at record levels, and historically a first-term president’s party generally suffers some losses in the midterms.

But the picture for Democrats has changed in recent months as the party has seen a slew of positive developments. Democrats are close to passing a major reconciliation bill on climate, tax reform and health care, a July jobs report outpaced economists’ expectations and recent inflation data has shown it’s started to cool down, among others.

In the Colorado survey, PPP polled 532 voters in the state between Aug. 3 and Aug. 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. In the Michigan survey, PPP polled 553 voters in the state between Aug. 3 and Aug. 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. In the Nevada survey, PPP polled 556 voters in the state between Aug. 3 and Aug. 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.