Poll: Cheney trails Trump-backed challenger in Wyoming by 22 points

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) trails her main challenger in her bid to win reelection to her House seat by more than 20 points, according to a poll released Friday. 

A poll from the Casper Star-Tribune shows attorney and Trump-backed candidate Harriet Hageman leading Cheney, 52 percent to 30 percent. Other candidates did not surpass 5 percent support, while 11 percent of respondents to the poll were undecided. 

The poll was the first independent, public in-state poll to be conducted on the race, according to the Star-Tribune. 

“The big story is Liz Cheney is going to get beat,” said Brad Coker, the managing director of the polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, which conducted the poll for the Star-Tribune. “That’s a foregone conclusion.” 

Cheney has been on the outs with most of her party over her condemnation of former President Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. Cheney was removed from her position as House GOP conference chair in the aftermath of her criticism, and Trump endorsed her challenger, Hageman, in the primary scheduled for next month. 

Cheney has served as the vice chair of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack, standing further in opposition to most of the party. 

Only 27 percent of respondents said they approved of the job Cheney was doing, while two-thirds said they disapproved. Those critical of her said she is too focused on her membership on the House Jan. 6 committee and fighting with Trump, with 54 percent saying they are less likely to support her because of her membership on the committee. 

More than 6 in 10 said Cheney’s opposition to Trump has affected her ability to deal with the issues facing the state, and only one-third said it has not affected her ability. 

Coker said the race is more about Cheney than Trump. 

“Anybody who’s credible, who ran to the right of Liz Cheney would probably win this race – with or without Donald Trump,” he said. 

Cheney has been seeking to rally Democrats in the state to switch parties to vote for her in the primary, sending out mail to Democratic voters with information on voting in the Republican primary. 

The poll states that Cheney has a 53 percent approval rating among Democrats who plan to vote in the Republican primary but only a 29 percent approval among independents who plan to do so. 

Although the poll showed 69 percent of registered Democrats who plan to vote in the GOP primary are supporting Cheney, the relatively small number of Democrats in the state limit their ability to influence the result.

The poll was conducted among 1,100 registered voters from July 7 to 11. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 points.