Cook Report moves six House races toward GOP

The Cook Political Report updated its rating on eight House races on Tuesday, moving six of them in the direction of Republicans. 

The adjustments come as inflation remains at record highs and President Biden’s approval rating hovers just above 40 percent, according to the latest Gallup poll. The six races that Cook updated in favor of Republicans include four in California, one in Pennsylvania and one in Rhode Island. 

One of the seats that Cook shifted in the GOP’s direction is Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, which Rep. Jim Langevin (D) currently represents. Langevin, who is not running for reelection, has held the seat for 20 years, and a Democrat has held the seat for 30 years. 

Cook moved the race from lean Democrat to a toss-up race.

Cook also shifted two House races in favor of the Democratic candidate, moving Rep. Kevin Calvert’s (R) race in California’s 41st Congressional District from likely Republican to lean Republican and Rep. María Elvira Salazar’s (R) race in Florida’s 27^th Congressional District from solidly Republican to likely Republican. 

Dave Wasserman, Cook’s senior editor for the House, concluded that early district-level polling paints a “bleak picture” for House Democrats, with Biden’s approval rating still poor in competitive districts. He said more time is needed to determine if the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade could fuel Democratic turnout and narrow an enthusiasm advantage that Republicans currently have. 

He said 38 currently Democratic-held seats are considered toss-ups or worse compared to only 10 Republican-held seats. He said Cook projects Republicans to net between 20 to 35 seats in the House in the midterm elections in November. 

A Morning Consult-Politico poll found last week that Democrats and Republicans are tied on the generic congressional ballot at 42 percent each.