DeSantis edges past Trump in New Hampshire poll

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) edges past former President Trump in a poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters over their first choice for president in the upcoming 2024 election.

The new University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released on Wednesday found DeSantis receiving 39 percent support from likely Republican primary voters in the state compared to 37 percent for Trump.

The difference between the two is insignificant and within the poll’s margin of error, meaning they are effectively tied at the top.

But it’s a significant rise for DeSantis in the poll. In previous polling conducted by the university, DeSantis had been trailing behind Trump, receiving 19 percent support in July 2021 and 18 percent in October 2021. Trump, in contrast, had won 47 percent and 43 percent support, respectively, in those previous polls.

“Trump slipping in pre-primary polls is part of a typical pattern,” Director of the UNH Survey Center Andrew Smith said in a statement.

“A party’s losing candidate in the prior election is typically the best-known person in their party. As the primary gets closer, new candidates emerge and attract more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election,” he added.

Former Vice President Mike Pence received 9 percent support in the new poll, while former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley received 6 percent. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) all received 1 percent each. 

This specific aspect of the University of New Hampshire poll surveyed 318 likely 2024 Republican primary voters. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 percent. 

Though none of the Republicans included in the poll have formally announced running in 2024, it has widely been speculated that some of them could enter the race should Trump decide against another run. 

The poll also demonstrates that DeSantis could be a formidable presidential challenger, though it is unclear if the Florida governor would run if Trump decides to jump into the race. DeSantis is also up for reelection this year as governor. 

However, the former president has remained confident that even if DeSantis did run, he would beat him for the Republican nomination.

“I don’t know if Ron is running, and I don’t ask him,” Trump said in a recent interview with The New Yorker. “It’s his prerogative. I think I would win.”