Midwest Democrats jockeying to come out on top in primary calendar shake-up

Midwestern states are battling to be bumped up to a coveted early slot in the Democratic presidential nominating calendar, jump-starting what election watchers say could be a big shake-up ahead of the 2024 election. 

Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois are among the states hoping to exert more influence and help diversify a lineup — led by the largely rural and predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire — that many Democrats say doesn’t represent the party’s true strength.  

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has announced 17 finalists to be among the first four or five, including Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois and all four current early primary states. State party officials began drafting proposals earlier this year and are set to make their cases to the body’s regulatory committee later this month. 

Proponents of Michigan and Minnesota point to them being critical swing states that helped elect President Biden. Geography matters too, they say. If Iowa gets the boot from its traditional role as the first-in-the-nation caucus state, either state would provide an alternative in the Midwest. 

“There needs to be a Midwest state,” Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell (D) told The Hill in an interview. “We’re the heart of the country.”  

After going for former President Trump by a slim margin in 2016, Michigan flipped back to blue four years later to give Biden enough Electoral College votes to help win the presidency.  

“I was one of the people that told people that Donald Trump would win Michigan in 2016, and, by the way, people in both parties thought that I was crazy, and I think it stunned a lot of people,” Dingell said. “It is a purple state, and we do decide who the president’s going to be.”  

“I’m not interested in presidential candidates testing the waters in my state. I’m interested in seeing the candidates answers to the questions that voters care about,” she added.  

Democrats see an advantage to having a general election battleground go earlier in the process, arguing that there’s value in showing voters the kind of candidates who can win in the fall, even a year or more ahead of the next presidential race.  

“The economy is diverse, the population is diverse, the geographical population is diverse, the educational levels are diverse,” said John Anzalone, one of Biden’s top pollsters who works on Michigan elections. 

“If you’re a presidential candidate looking to be tested with a bunch of different universes of voters, it’s really perfect,” he said. 

Michigan Democrats are expected to pitch their case to the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, the governing force that decides the order of the calendar, on June 23. 

As part of their case-building, they recently sent a letter to the national party listing reasons they believe the Great Lakes State is best suited to appear on the early roster. The memo was signed by Dingell and the rest of Michigan’s congressional delegation.  

Minnesota is also high on Democrats’ list of considerations. It currently leans blue, but also has a strong independent streak that state party officials believe can be beneficial to voters.  

In 2016, it awarded Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) a momentum-boosting win over Hillary Clinton, which temporarily changed the narrative that progressives can’t catch on in geographically diverse areas. Clinton took Minnesota in the 2016 general election and in 2020 Biden won the state over Trump. 

“Our state is a true microcosm of the country,” said Ken Martin, who chairs Minnesota’s Farmer-Labor Party and serves as the vice chairman of the DNC.  

Martin has been closely involved in navigating the complicated process each presidential cycle. As president of the Association of State Democratic Committees, he’s seen the importance of bringing new perspectives into the conversation that set the tone and direction for the election. 

Martin believes Minnesota, which currently votes on Super Tuesday, brings together “diverse racial and ethnic communities, a strong agriculture industry and the presence of rural Democratic voters.” He also praised the strong union and business footprint. 

“Presidential candidates who can bring all of these voters together and win in Minnesota would be well positioned to win across the country,” he added.  

Adding to the intrigue, a third state, Illinois, has also thrown its hat in the ring. Officials there recently submitted their pitch to the DNC, also citing the state’s “unmatched” diversity in the Midwest.  

“That diversity would strengthen candidates’ campaign messaging and tactics for both the primary and general elections, because winning in Illinois requires building the kinds of broad-based coalitions necessary to win the Electoral College in November,” the state party wrote.  

Biden was the overwhelming favorite in the Prairie State in 2020, outcompeting Trump by double digits. That could ultimately work against its chances of moving up, as many Democrats are openly expressing a desire for a battleground to serve as a test run ahead of the eventual Democrat vs. Republican match-up.  

Still, others see the upside overtaking any potential shortcomings. An official with the state Democratic Party listed recent Democratic gains there as reasons for the national party to consider its bid.   

“We really have a blueprint here for national candidates and how to translate Democratic values and Democratic campaign tactics into persuading voters, turning them out and winning,” said Jake Lewis, deputy director of the Illinois Democratic Party.  

“We are a bigger state. We understand that,” Lewis continued. “But Democrats have to win big states.” 

“We vote to be able to win big states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and so testing Democratic candidates early on their ability to organize in bigger states and their ability to organize in bigger cities in a city like Chicago, it’s really important,” he said.  

Even as newcomers try out for a spot, the original first four are working to keep their places on the calendar. Election strategists say that may be hardest for Iowa. 

Democrats have long lamented the state’s prominence in the process, pointing to its lack of racial diversity and its rightward tilt in recent years. The highly public debacle in 2020, when a technology malfunction caused uncertainty among voters and problems for party officials, may have been the final push to retool the calendar. 

But supporters of Iowa keeping the electoral status quo are fighting to maintain its first-in-the-nation status, saying the state has played a defining role in previous races that sent more liberal candidates to the White House. 

“There wouldn’t have been a President Obama without Iowa,” said Ross Wilburn, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party.  

But they are open to making a significant change. Another major criticism of the caucus process is that it excludes anyone who may not be able to spend multiple hours at the event on a cold, winter night. The Des Moines Register reported earlier this month that state party officials have put forward a plan where voters would send in “presidential preference cards” in advance. In an attempt at compromise, the results would be announced on the original caucus date, but the voting process itself would be closer to a traditional primary. 

And for officials such as Wilburn, the state’s small size is an asset. “I understand other states wanting to be part of the process, but our presidential nominee cannot be decided by large media markets and candidates who just have larger dollars,” he said.  

“We have an affordable television market, and a candidate who doesn’t have the funds necessarily or the notoriety nationally, initially, they can campaign here in Iowa. There’s great grassroots strength. Our friends and neighbors help inform the messaging of presidential candidates,” he said.