Campaign Report — Democrats confront brutal atmosphere

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox Tuesdays and Thursdays each week leading up to November’s election. 

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Democrats brace for historically bad headwinds

Midterm elections are fast approaching and Democrats are bracing for a tough road ahead.   

With the White House and Congress in their control, the upcoming election cycle is all but certain to be a challenge for Democrats.  

As Democrats look to at least maintain their tight margins in Congress, the outlook appears worse than it has been for any other modern president. 

It’s not unusual for the party in power to struggle around midterms. A president’s party has only gained seats in midterm elections twice since 1974: once during Bill Clinton’s presidency in 1998 and again in 2004 during George W. Bush’s time in office. 

But interviews with half a dozen Democratic strategists and pollsters showed a party looking to take advantage of voter anger, because despite the plummeting popularity of Democrats, Republicans aren’t all that popular either.  

Our own Reid Wilson has more here, including the details of a new Gallup poll that made the rounds among Democrats showing common barometers gauging public opinion are dangerously low. 

Even so, Biden’s approval ratings in critical swing states are even worse than they are nationally, an issue that’s almost certain to have implications in 2024.  

Couple the 79-year-old’s low approval ratings with concerns about his age, and talks about Biden’s strength as a presidential candidate have already begun.    

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) tried to table the issue. 

“I think it’s too soon to start that speculation. He’s got to complete this year, second year of his presidency. Then of course the speculation will grow. I can’t say at this point what I would recommend,” Durbin said of Biden’s potential second term.   

Still, Democratic senators have pledged to stand behind the president should he choose to run, Alexander Bolton reports. 

Last Tuesday and next Tuesday

Former President Trump’s sway was put to the test again last Tuesday, and again, he saw mixed results. 

Trump had made top targets out of Reps. Tom Rice and Nancy Mace, both Republicans representing districts in South Carolina. 

Rice voted to impeach Trump after last year’s riot on Capitol Hill and made that vote a focal point of his reelection bid. Mace, meanwhile, did not vote to impeach Trump but blamed him for his role in inciting the insurrection and voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. Still, she tied herself closely to Trump throughout her campaign. 

Trump endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry in his challenge to Rice and former state Rep. Katie Arrington in her bid to unseat Mace. Fry won, while Arrington fell short. 

There were certainly difference between the two districts, with Rice representing a more hardcore Republican area and Mace representing an area that leans more libertarian. Their campaign styles also were polar opposites, with Rice often bringing up his impeachment vote in interviews with the press, while Mace filmed a video outside of Trump Tower in New York praising the former president after Trump backed Arrington. 

But an overwhelming takeaway appeared to be that GOP primary voters could overlook a short break with Trump but could be less forgiving of a more fundamental stance opposing him. 

Beyond Trump’s sway, Republicans overall got a boost in a special election in south Texas, where Republican Mayra Flores won a special election for an open House seat, making her the first Mexican-born woman to win election to the House. However, the seat will fundamentally change in November after redistricting, and Flores faces an uphill battle against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D). 

Next week’s races include Alabama’s GOP Senate runoff between Katie Britt and Rep. Mo Brooks. Trump previously endorsed Brooks, a hardliner closely aligned with the former president’s policies, but Brooks lost the endorsement after telling GOP voters to move on from the 2020 election. Trump endorsed Britt last week. 

A Peach State oppo dump

Georgia is hosting one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, and this week it started coming to a head.  

GOP nominee Herschel Walker was hit with a slate of opposition research dumps that typically characterize the tightest races. 

Early in the week, a report emerged saying that Herschel previously lied about having served in law enforcement. Then, reports emerged of children he had who the public did not know about and that he paid child support to support at least one of them. The reports cut against past comments he made in 2020 in which he said “the fatherless home is a major, major problem.” 

In a statement from his campaign Thursday, Walker acknowledged he had four children total. The Daily Beast, which broke the story, reported he has one son with his first wife, Cindy Deangelis Grossman, and three other children with other women. 

“I have four children. Three sons and a daughter. They’re not ‘undisclosed’ — they’re my kids. I support them all and love them all,” he said. 

Still, the slew of negative headlines comes as Walker is trying to gear up for a pitched battle against Sen. Raphael Warnock, who will bring substantial resources to bear on the race in a contest that could decide control of the entire Senate. 

POLL WATCH

In the closely watched Texas gubernatorial race, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) led his challenger former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), according to a new Quinnipiac University poll out Wednesday.  

That poll showed Abbott with the support of 48 percent of Texas voters compared to O’Rourke’s 43 percent. The latest survey marked a notable shift from Abbott’s 15-point lead in December when the governor had 52 percent support and O’Rourke held 37 percent support. 

The poll came after an elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, left 19 children and two adults dead, prompting O’Rourke to confront Abbott during a press conference.  

“You are doing nothing,” O’Rourke said to the governor, who was providing information on the shooting at the time. “You said this was not predictable, this was totally predictable, and you choose not to do anything.” 

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) was ahead of his Trump-endorsed Republican challenger and celebrity physician Mehmet Oz by 9 points in another USA Today Network-Suffolk University poll from this week.  

That survey showed Fetterman with 46 percent support and Oz with 37 percent, but 13 percent of voters were still undecided in the race. 

Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race was closer with state Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) holding a small 4-point lead over Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano.

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week. 

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