Democrats weigh chances in Ohio Senate race

Democrats are grappling with a major strategic decision: how aggressively to pursue the open Senate seat in Ohio. 

On one hand, party leaders and strategists say there’s reason to be hopeful. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), their nominee to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), is a prolific fundraiser with an adept ability to appeal to the state’s blue-collar voters. 

Recent polling shows him virtually deadlocked with his Republican rival J.D. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who carries the endorsement of former President Trump. 

But Democrats are also acutely aware of Ohio’s rightward shift in recent years. Trump carried the state twice, in 2016 and 2020, and aside from former President Obama and Sen. Sherrod Brown, no Democrat has won statewide in Ohio since 2006.

“I’m just not so sure it’s a swing state anymore,” one national Democratic strategist said. “It’s not a lost cause, by any means. Tim Ryan is a solid, solid candidate. But when you take a look at where to put resources, Ohio is a tough call.”

Ryan, a 10-term congressman who sought the Democratic presidential nod in 2020 only to suspend his campaign before the Iowa caucuses, clinched his party’s Senate nomination last month by a staggering 52-point margin.

Democrats see him as a candidate in the same mold as Brown, the last Ohio Democrat to win statewide. Ryan has cast himself as an economic populist focused on reviving his state’s struggling manufacturing sector, cutting taxes for the middle class and countering China’s economic rise.

His allies are quick to dispute the notion that Ohio’s rightward shift in recent years has put it out of reach for Democrats. Aaron Pickrell, a Democratic strategist and former top adviser to Obama’s winning campaigns in Ohio, said that it would be a mistake for national Democrats to write the Ohio Senate race off as a foregone conclusion.

“If the national Republicans are in 100 percent and the national Democrats are in 20 percent, that obviously makes it a really challenging ordeal,” Pickrell said. “There’s this self-fulfilling prophecy: We’re not going to win in Ohio because we didn’t invest in Ohio, and we didn’t invest in Ohio because we’re not going to win Ohio.”

But Ryan is running in a very different political environment than Brown did in 2018, the last time he was on the ballot. Democrats are fighting to hold on to their paper-thin Senate majority in a midterm election year that is already proving to be difficult for the party. 

President Biden’s approval rating is deep underwater both nationally and in Ohio. At the same time, the nation is grappling with the highest inflation in decades and rapidly rising gas prices that have put a financial squeeze on millions of Americans. 

There’s also the historical maxim that the party in power almost always loses political ground in midterm elections.

“Ryan has the Sherrod Brown shot,” David Niven, a political science professor at the University of Cincinnati, said. “Ohio has a history of voting for a pro-blue-collar, working family-oriented Senate candidate for the last couple of decades.”

“The two problems that Ryan faces in that equation: One is he’s not Sherrod Brown. He doesn’t have the statewide recognition of Sherrod Brown,” Niven continued. “And the other is Brown’s victories have all come in strong Democratic years. And Ryan has to do what Sherrod Brown has done in a year where the tide is running against it.”

One of the biggest questions for national Democrats is how much to invest in the Ohio Senate race. The party is defending vulnerable incumbents in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada and is looking to flip Republican-held Senate seats in states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both of which broke for Biden in the 2020 election.

Ohio hasn’t been left out from early national spending entirely. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee included it in an initial $30 million field organizing program announced last year. 

But so far, other Democratic power players are taking a wait-and-see approach to the Senate race in Ohio. When Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC, announced an initial $30 million digital advertising investment in January, Ohio wasn’t among the seven states on the group’s target list. Likewise, Ohio was left out of a $106 million investment on ad reservations by Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.).

Justin Barasky, who managed Brown’s 2018 election campaign and is advising Ryan on his Senate bid, dismissed the notion that national Democrats weren’t taking the Senate race seriously, saying there’s more to the political dynamics in Ohio than the results of the last two presidential elections.

“Ohio’s not a reach state. Ohio’s not Kentucky. Ohio’s not South Carolina,” Barasky said, referring to two red states that Democrats spent heavily on in 2020 only to see their candidates lose by double-digit margins. “If this race remains as close as it is now, and I have no reason to think that it won’t be, national Democrats are going to continue to spend here.”

Barasky said that the most important factor in the Senate race is candidate authenticity. In 2016 and 2020, voters saw Trump as an authentic candidate, “for better or worse,” he said, adding that Ryan’s own message, while different from Trump’s, has a similar resonance among Ohio voters.

“This is not a red state by any means,” Barasky said. “It’s not a blue state either. It’s center right, but it’s still a very competitive state for Democrats who have the right message and run a good campaign.” 

“He’s been a fundraising superstar, he’s got exactly the right message, he’s not falling prey to some of the partisan fights that go on in Washington and he’s been relentlessly focused on fighting for workers,” Barasky said.  

Indeed, Ryan appears to be in a formidable position to take on Vance. 

A Suffolk University-USA Today Network poll released this week found Ryan and his Trump-endorsed rival statistically deadlocked in the race. Ryan also has a significant cash advantage. As of April 13, he had nearly $5.2 million in his campaign coffers, while Vance had less than $700,000, according to their most recent federal filings.

And unlike Vance, who faced a long and bitter primary fight against several other Republicans, Ryan largely coasted to the Democratic nomination with only nominal opposition, effectively giving him a head start on his general election campaign.

Ryan has also taken an interesting tack toward Trump, siding with him on issues such as free trade and echoing his tough-on-China rhetoric. In a new campaign ad released on Friday, Ryan boasted that he “agreed with Trump on trade” and “voted against outsourcing every single time,” while Vance “made millions profiting from globalization.”

Republicans, however, argue that Ohio’s political realignment toward the GOP in recent years, combined with rising inflation, a spike in crime and widespread malaise with Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress, may prove too difficult for Democrats to overcome in November. 

“If I’m advising Republican candidates right now, I would tell them to go on vacation for two or three months,” one Ohio Republican strategist said. “Do no harm right now. Just get the hell out of the way because the wave is coming.”

“If a Republican loses in Ohio this year, it’s their own damn fault,” the strategist added.

Mike Hartley, a Columbus-based Republican consultant, waved off the idea that Vance is entering the general election damaged by a tough primary campaign, saying that the “Hillbilly Elegy” author stands to benefit from the coalition of voters that rallied behind Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

“The Trump coalition — they vote straight party,” Hartley said. “Beyond anything else, beyond what the suburban voters were in the Republican coalition, they vote straight party ticket. And that’s what you’re going to see in all these races.”

“I think the Republican coalition will circle the wagons,” he added. “That’s the message — control the Senate.”