Maloney leads Nadler in New York House primary: poll

Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) is leading fellow New York Democrat, Rep. Jared Nadler, by double digits in the primary to represent the state’s newly drawn 12th congressional district, according to a new WPIX/Emerson College/The Hill poll.

Maloney and Nadler are both longtime heavyweights in New York City politics, having represented neighboring districts in Manhattan for decades. But a court-ordered redistricting plan approved last week has pitted the two House Democrats against one another in an incumbent-on-incumbent clash.

The primary is still nearly three months away, but the poll from WPIX, Emerson College and The Hill shows Maloney with an early, 10-point advantage. Thirty-one percent of Democratic primary voters say they plan to cast their ballots for Maloney, while 21 percent are backing Nadler.

Another 36 percent of voters, however, remain undecided, meaning the race could shift toward either candidate in the coming months.

Driving Maloney’s poll numbers is her support among female voters, thirty-six percent of whom say that will back her in the Aug. 23 primary. Male voters, meanwhile, are more evenly divided; 26 percent say they plan to vote for Maloney while 22 percent support Nadler.

The incumbent-vs-incumbent primary is only one of the pitfalls that New York Democrats are facing after a state court struck down a House map designed to give the party a heavy electoral advantage and appointed a special master to redraw the lines.

The court-approved map creates 16 Democratic-leaning seats, six Republican-leaning seats and four highly competitive seats – a major hit for Democrats, whose initial map created 20 Democratic-leaning seats, four Republican-leaning seats and only two highly competitive seats.

The WPIX/Emerson College/The Hill poll surveyed 500 somewhat or very likely Democratic voters from May 24-25. It has a margin of sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points.