Could the end of Roe v. Wade save Democrats in November?

Democrats fear a Supreme Court ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade would seriously endanger women’s health and disintegrate one of their most sacrosanct political rights. 

But for all the anger and concern, some in the party see a way to turn the shared anxiety into action in November. 

They say the possibility — expected by many court-watchers — that abortion could suddenly become illegal in states across the country could galvanize voters in a way few other issues could, particularly as President Biden remains plagued by low approval ratings and predicaments at home and abroad.  

“Reproductive freedom is poised to have a tremendous impact on the midterm elections,” said Ally Boguhn, acting communications director for NARAL Pro-Choice America. “Voters are increasingly being confronted with the reality that the constitutional right to abortion recognized for nearly 50 years could be eviscerated just a few months before they cast their ballots.”  

Biden’s inability to rise from the low 40s in approval polls has caused many Democrats to write the House off as a loss and cast the Senate as a danger zone. Surveys indicate his efforts to control inflation have left voters unimpressed, and his focus on Russia’s foreign war in Ukraine ranks lower as a matter of interest than domestic issues such as the economy and the high price of gas.  

The looming threat to abortion rights, however, has caused Democrats in both wings of the party to prioritize the issue more rigorously. They see it as something that not only motivates their base, but can also bring infrequent or less-committed voters into the fold at a critical moment. 

Surveys consistently show that most voters back abortion rights. In more than three decades of Gallup polling, support for overturning Roe v. Wade has never crossed above 40 percent, and an NBC News survey last month found that, by a more than 2-to-1 margin, voters are “more likely” to back a candidate who supports Roe.

In anticipation of November, many Democrats have already started strategizing around ways to show voters that Republicans are behind efforts to scale back women’s health. 

“Fears about what would happen if Roe is overturned are already playing out in states where anti-choice politicians are working in overdrive to ban abortion and cut off access as quickly as possible, and voters are watching,” Boguhn said. 

That is particularly true in swing states where Democrats are preparing for tough reelection campaigns against GOP candidates.  

In New Hampshire, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is in what’s expected to be a competitive match-up against an as-yet-unknown GOP rival. Hassan, a former governor, has been outspoken against efforts led by current Gov. Chris Sununu (R) to significantly curb abortion rights in the state, which has reliably provided protections for female reproductive health. 

Sununu declined to mount a Senate challenge to Hassan, but Democrats nonetheless expect whoever becomes the Republican nominee to adopt a restrictive anti-abortion rights platform — and are crafting attacks with that in mind.  

“Our campaign is already talking to Granite Staters directly about the contrast between Senator Hassan’s staunch support for reproductive health care with her opponents’ records of eviscerating women’s liberty,” said Kevin Donohoe, Hassan’s campaign spokesperson.  

“New Hampshire has a strong bipartisan history of supporting reproductive freedom and our opponents’ long record of backing abortion bans could not be more toxic with voters,” he said. 

Republicans see the issue as equally provocative for their own base.  

Each cycle, GOP candidates and aligned committees spend significant resources attempting to portray Democrats as the party that supports abortion under more extreme scenarios, such as later in a woman’s pregnancy.  

Those efforts have led several battlegrounds to put laws on the books that make the procedure harder to obtain. 

In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), a Biden ally who is also up for reelection, has preemptively asked the state Supreme Court to examine whether getting an abortion is a constitutional right. 

The move was made in anticipation of forthcoming Supreme Court decisions on multiple abortion cases, including a Mississippi law that bans the procedure after 15 weeks. Supporters of that and other anti-abortion measures are openly calling on the 6-3 conservative majority high court to overturn Roe v. Wade this term. 

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is up for reelection this year and believed to have presidential aspirations for 2024, on Thursday made his state the latest to follow in Mississippi’s footsteps with a 15-week ban. 

Other states have considered or enacted even more restrictive bills, with Oklahoma poised to outlaw the practice after just six weeks or possibly even permanently in the near future. 

For all the action on the Republican side, Democrats say they have become more activated and better organized, challenging state-by-state rulings and rallying activists on the ground in key areas ahead of the midterm elections. 

Many have also been vocal from Washington.  

Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill and senior officials in the White House have coalesced around reproductive rights to show a unified front as other topics divide factions of the party.  

Biden’s inability to persuade key members of the Senate to help pass his legislative agenda crushed Democrats’ morale, and the administration continues to search for more tangible wins to offer voters.  

Activists on the outside have also been focused on hammering Republicans over what they see as an affront to personal identity and freedom, as well as a losing issue at the ballot box.   

“The decades long crusade by the Republican Party to end legal abortion is now taking effect,” Cecile Richards, the co-chair of the Democratic firm American Bridge and a former president of Planned Parenthood, told The Hill on Friday.  

“Voters are beginning to realize this is 100 percent a result of the Republican Party prioritizing politics over women’s health.”

Democrats in North Carolina say a Supreme Court ruling that would leave states to determine their own abortion laws is a political disaster for the other side. They view further restrictions as doing significant harm to women who have already seen various attempts by GOP lawmakers try to limit their access.  

While prior efforts to protect abortions have come up short — the state has a Democratic governor who has not signed off on such attempts — the fall elections could add a new focus on the health care debate in a way that some acknowledge is both motivating and terrifying. 

“If you were not with us when we were fighting back against attempts to restrict access to abortion and defund Planned Parenthood, then how can we believe that [you will] suddenly be with us now?” asked Erica Smith, a House candidate and former North Carolina state senator running to replace a more moderate Democrat, Rep. G.K. Butterfield, in the 1st Congressional District.  

Women “deserve to take that pain and frustration and righteous anger to the ballot box and fight back,” she said. 

The court is expected to release its decisions toward the end of June. But neither Democrats nor Republicans are waiting to act. 

“Attacks on reproductive freedom are a massive liability for Republican politicians, and this will be even more true if Roe is overturned,” said Boguhn. “Democratic candidates up and down the ballot would be wise to lean into their support for reproductive freedom.”