Republican lawmakers say they will play a significant role at what is shaping up to be a raucous GOP convention in Cleveland this summer.
In an early show of influence, the GOP senators who spoke to The Hill are backing Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus’s handling of the delegate selection process. But they say there will be a backlash if voters think their will is being circumvented.
{mosads}If GOP front-runner Donald Trump secures the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before the Republican National Convention, many lawmakers aren’t eager to be part of the process.
Should the convention be contested, however, they want to have a say in the floor debate.
Some Republicans say Trump won’t get the nomination if he doesn’t secure it on the first ballot. If it goes to a second ballot, Ted Cruz will likely be the favorite to become the party’s standard-bearer.
“If it’s a Trump coronation, I’m not going,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who had endorsed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in his failed presidential bid. “If it’s a fight, it may be fun to watch.”
“I want to be part of the Nebraska delegation, to be on the floor and be able to participate in discussions and conversations,” said Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), who also backed Rubio.
Fischer last week said she hoped to be a delegate, but she’s since changed her mind, knowing that she’ll be able to wield considerable influence with her delegation — whether she has a formal vote or not.
“I would be able to be on the floor during the votes and to be involved in the dialogue,” she said.
Last weekend, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), who may serve as a delegate from Kentucky, said, “I’m increasingly optimistic that there will actually be a second ballot.”
He told reporters Tuesday that he hopes the balloting will yield a viable candidate.
“I hope that out of this process, no matter when it ends — first, second, third or additional ballots — we’ll have a nominee who will be appealing to the American people and can actually win the election,” said McConnell, who had backed Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and is hoping to preserve his fragile majority in the upper chamber this fall.
One GOP senator speaking on background predicted that Trump will lose 400 to 500 delegates if he fails to win on the first ballot. While more than 90 percent are bound on the first vote, it drops to under 50 percent on the second.
“If I become a delegate, I’d be bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot. I wouldn’t vote for him on the second ballot,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who said he’s still mulling over what to do.
Trump won Graham’s home state by 10 percentage points. Graham dropped out of the presidential race in December, before the South Carolina primary. He has since backed Cruz.
Publicly, just about every Republican senator says he or she will support the party’s nominee. However, privately, many doubt Trump — or even Cruz, for that matter — can beat Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
They also expect the nominee to have a significant impact on candidates down-ballot, with the power to make or break their House and Senate majorities.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who backed Rubio, said he wants to participate to help ensure that tensions don’t spiral out of control. Trump has warned of riots in Cleveland if party leaders block him from winning the nomination.
Tillis said he wants to have “influence over the tone of the convention.”
“Let’s make sure we got a path to having unity coming out of the convention. I think that’s a role that [members] can play,” he added.
Some Republicans have downplayed the possibility of nominating someone other than the three candidates still running — Trump, Cruz and John Kasich — but they quietly concede it’s an option.
“If the convention deadlocks, then the convention has an obligation to consider other options,” said former Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.), who is running to serve as an unbound delegate from Pennsylvania.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) is trying to assess how much clout he would wield through his access to the floor.
“I’ve been asking my fellow senators the degree to which, if you don’t have voting privileges, you have influence,” said Cassidy, who has not endorsed in the primary.
He noted that opinions are split. Some GOP veterans are advising him he could make a difference, while others say many delegates tend to be activists with their own well-defined views.
“I’m supporting the person who can win. If it turns out clearly that one of our candidates is more likely to win than another in a general, of course I want to influence people to consider that same perspective,” he said. “I think we need to win this election.”
Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who will not be a delegate, pointed out that he participated in the 2012 convention, adding, “I anticipate being there again for the same purpose — helping any way I can.”
“The Colorado delegates went with Ted Cruz, which at this point I think is the way an open convention would go. The Colorado guys are on the right track,” said Gardner, who had endorsed Rubio.
The state awarded all its delegates to Cruz after holding a series of congressional district conventions and then a state convention in lieu of a regular primary. Trump’s campaign is challenging the results.
Few of the aspiring delegates on Capitol Hill are committed Trump supporters. One is Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), the only member of the chamber to endorse him.
He argues that his colleagues should be careful about subverting the will of voters.
“People should be very slow to abandon the candidate the voters directed them to support. It would be very problematic for people to stealthily come in as a Trump delegate and then look for the first opportunity to jump ship,” Sessions said.
Lawmakers support Priebus’s handling of the delegate selection process, which Trump has criticized as a “corrupt and crooked system.”
The party chairman recently clashed with the party’s rules committee over a proposed change that would have made it tougher to open the convention ballot to new nominees.
Priebus argues that such rule changes should be up to the rank-and-file delegates, a position that would give them more latitude to consider other nominees.
“What’s appropriate is for the delegates to make the selection,” said Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), who had endorsed Rubio.
“Reince is trying to do the best job he can. I think he’s handled the delegate question well,” Graham said. “There are no dirty tricks going on. There’s politics. The rules have been set for a long time.”
Many Republicans in tough reelection races are unlikely to attend the convention. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the party’s 2008 presidential nominee who is a Democratic target in November, told The Hill this week he won’t be in Cleveland this summer.