Crossover voters flummox parties

For party strategists, the juiciest House targets are Republicans who represent districts President Obama won in 2008 and Democrats who hold seats Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried.

But an examination of just who those members are reveals a large portion of the electorate willing to split tickets.

Staffers at the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) are combing a list containing the names of dozens of members of the rival party, all of whom represent districts the other party’s presidential candidate won last year.

In some cases, these will be the most vulnerable members up for reelection next year, and both committees are expending considerable resources recruiting top candidates.

In total, 49 Democrats represent districts McCain won in 2008, and 35 Republicans hold seats Obama won. Some of those members represent both parties’ top targets.

Republicans will mount serious challenges to first-term Reps. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), Frank Kratovil (D-Md.), John Boccieri (D-Ohio), Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.), Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) and Tom Perriello (D-Va.), among others.

Democrats will have to contend with battle-tested, perpetually targeted incumbents like Reps. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) and Frank Wolf (R-Va.), though the party will have the chance to unseat freshman Reps. Joseph Cao (R-La.), Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.) and Leonard Lance (R-N.J.) — all of whom won election even as Obama took more votes than McCain in their districts.

“We are going to stay on offense wherever possible, and we think there are some opportunities out there,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who heads the DCCC, told reporters Wednesday.

But both parties will also talk tough about taking on opponents where they have little chance, even in districts where Obama or McCain won easily.

Democrats may have little hope of beating established Republicans like Reps. Judy Biggert (Ill.), Fred Upton (Mich.) or Frank LoBiondo (N.J.), all of whom won reelection in districts that went for Obama by about 10 points.

On the GOP side, the examples are more extreme. Republicans don’t hold out much hope for knocking off Reps. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.), Dan Boren (D-Okla.), Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) or Charlie Melancon (D-La.), whose districts voted for McCain by margins between 24 points (in Melancon’s district) and 35 points (in Taylor’s).

The incumbents “often do not promote the fact that they are a Democrat, just like [ex-Rep.] Tom Davis [R-Va.] didn’t do a whole lot of advertising that he was a Republican,” said Rhodes Cook, an independent political analyst. “You minimize your party affiliation and maximize the fact that you’re the hardworking incumbent they know and love.”

Cook said that, with the rising cost of House races — the average winning campaign cost more than $1.44 million in 2008, up from $931,000 in 2000 — members of Congress are better able to define themselves, instead of allowing their party labels to define them.

“They’re insulating themselves,” Cook said of incumbents in swing districts. “They’re building up fortresses that aren’t easy to wash away.”

Both parties are targeting their rivals with press releases attacking key votes and, in some cases, with radio advertisements.

“You always start off at the beginning of the cycle with a larger [target] list, but by the end of the cycle you have a much more discreet list,” said DCCC spokeswoman Jennifer Crider. “We’re going to aggressively target a lot of these folks.”

Top Democratic targets, Crider and Van Hollen noted, represent districts both Obama and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won, including Reps. Cao, Reichert, Dent, Kirk, Mike Castle (R-Del.) and Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.).

And there is always the possibility that members of Congress will decide to call it quits or run for higher office. Castle is reportedly being pressured to run for Senate, while Gerlach has made no secret of his desire to run for governor. Kirk may also make a statewide bid in Illinois.

Democrats are also looking at California, where despite an incumbent-friendly redistricting process a number of Republicans seriously underperformed in 2008. Reps. Dan Lungren, Ken Calvert and Brian Bilbray all won with less than 51 percent of the vote.

Republicans, too, acknowledge they won’t be able to beat every Democrat on the list, but they say the party is actively working on other opportunities in districts Obama won.

“We are acutely aware we need to create opportunities in districts outside those 49, especially since it’s unlikely that 100 percent of those people will end up being a top target,” said Ken Spain, the NRCC’s communications chief.

Republicans have talked up candidates in heavily Democratic districts like Charles Djou, the Honolulu city councilmember set to run for Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s (D-Hawaii) seat. The party also is said to be looking into recruiting challengers to Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.).

“We are looking to some unconventional districts where we believe we can draft a top-flight candidate to create additional opportunities,” Spain said.

Aaron Blake contributed to this article.