New members: Welcome to Congress, but don’t get too comfortable just yet

More than 60 new members of Congress are set to be sworn in Tuesday, filling the House and Senate nearly one-eighth with freshman. And many of them will be watching their backs from Day One.

The Hill ranks the 10 most vulnerable incoming freshmen:

1. Rep.-elect Joseph Cao (R-La.)

{mosads}When asked how Cao could win reelection, at least one Louisiana political expert recommended he become a Democrat as quickly as possible. Cao won an extremely low-turnout affair one month after Election Day against an indicted New Orleans incumbent — William Jefferson (D). While the achievement is still remarkable in one of the 30 most Democratic districts in the country, it is unlikely to be repeated.

Who might run: State Sen. Cheryl Gray (D), state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), former New Orleans City Councilman Troy Carter (D), New Orleans City Councilman James Carter, former television reporter Helena Moreno (D)

2. Rep.-elect Walt Minnick (D-Idaho)

Minnick won in large part thanks to outgoing Rep. Bill Sali’s (R) inability to play nice even with members of his own party. The incoming Democrat will attempt to hold down a district that voted 69 percent for President Bush in 2004, and he has shown the fundraising prowess to do so. Minnick would be well-served if Sali ran again, but, even in that case, the GOP primary would be no cinch for the one-term former representative.

Who might run: Sali, state Sen. John McGee (R), state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden (R)

3. Rep.-elect Tom Perriello (D-Va.)

No new congressman won by a closer margin in 2008, and Perriello needed a recount to solidify his 727-vote win over Rep. Virgil Goode (R). Despite the conservative lean of the district, Perriello benefited from a large turnout on the University of Virginia campus in Charlottesville. With President-elect Obama off the ballot in 2010, Perriello faces a difficult second act.

Who might run: Goode, former state Sen. Brandon Bell (R), state Sen. Frank Ruff (R), state Sen. Robert Hurt (R), state Del. Danny Marshall (R)

4. Rep.-elect Glenn Nye (D-Va.)

It was a good Election Day for Virginia Democrats, but their hold on Perriello’s and this seat appear to be tenuous. Nye also upended an incumbent, taking down Rep. Thelma Drake (R), but he also had an Election Day advantage: Nye was one of several Democrats who benefited from high African-American turnout. In his Virginia Beach district, blacks account for more than one in five residents.

Who might run: Drake, state Sen. Frank Wagner (R), state Sen. Ken Stolle (R)

5. Rep.-elect Bobby Bright (D-Ala.)

Similar to Nye, Bright benefited from black turnout in a 30-percent African-American district. The reason he is ranked below Nye is that he is a known quantity as the outgoing mayor of Montgomery, and incumbency is likely to help in an area in which he struggled in 2008 — fundraising. Still, his district is very conservative, giving President Bush a 2-to-1 victory in 2004.

Who might run: 2008 opponent Jay Love (R), Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke

6. Rep.-elect Frank Kratovil (D-Md.)

{mospagebreak}There were few surprises on Election Day, but considering where the race began, Kratovil’s open-seat win over state Sen. Andy Harris (R) was remarkable. After Harris successfully ran to Rep. Wayne Gilchrest’s (R) right and won the February primary, Kratovil staked out the middle ground in the general election, and won by less than 1 percent. Harris is girding for a rematch, but a district that went 62 percent for President Bush in 2004 should draw significant GOP interest.

Who might run: Harris, 2008 primary candidate and state Sen. E.J. Pipkin (R), former Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R), former state first lady Kendel Ehrlich, state Del. Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio (R), state Del. Steve Schuh (R)

7. Rep.-elect Betsy Markey (D-Colo.)

{mosads}Much like Minnick, Markey benefited from a severely unpopular incumbent, and will have to hold a very conservative district. Also like Minnick, her potential opponents are already keying up bids. University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero (R) has filed an exploratory committee, and a smattering of local GOPers are expected to join him.

Who might run: Lucero, state Rep. Cory Gardner (R), former state Treasurer Mark Hillman (R), state Sen. Greg Brophy (R), Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R)

8. Rep.-elect Tom McClintock (R-Calif.)

McClintock narrowly defeated a two-time candidate who also lost in 2006 to embattled Rep. John Doolittle (R), just months before the pressure of an impending investigation forced Doolittle to retire. Some might say Democrats’ best chances have passed with the 2006 and 2008 cycles, but McClintock retains vulnerabilities, including the fact that he moved 400 miles north to run for Congress. Constituent service will be an X-factor. Democrat Charlie Brown, the 2006 and 2008 nominee, might stand a better chance in a non-presidential year, and he’s eyeing 2010.

Who might run: Brown

9.  Rep.-elect Alan Grayson (D-Fla.)

Grayson is a rare breed — a self-funder made good. An attorney who spent more than $2.3 million of his own money on a successful campaign, Grayson is an unknown quantity who beat an incumbent in the midst of a nightmare cycle. Rep. Ric Keller (R) nearly blew a primary that was on nobody’s radar and then proceeded to drop the general election by four points to Grayson, who emerged from a crowded Democratic primary with little fanfare. The district leans Republican.

Who might run: Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty (R), former state Sen. Dan Webster (R)

10. Sen.-elect Mark Begich (D-Alaska)

OK, so we won’t know for six years whether Begich is one of the 10 most vulnerable freshmen (as a senator, he isn’t up until 2014). But anybody who narrowly beats an incumbent who has been convicted of corruption should probably be looking over his or her shoulder at all times. Begich probably would have won by more if not for Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin being the GOP vice presidential nominee. Still, the top of the ticket featured Stevens and another embattled GOP lawmaker, Rep. Don Young.

Who might run: It’s early, but possibly Palin, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R), or state House Speaker John Harris (R)