Barack Obama’s massive campaign operation has generated a spike in Democratic voter registration in battleground states and competitive House districts, prompting political experts to predict that Obama will bring a crowd of Democrats into office on his coattails.
Sen. Obama (D-Ill.) is also expected to help Democratic candidates in states where he leads in the polls and voters are allowed to save time and vote for every Democrat (or Republican) on the ballot with a single mark of the ballot. Straight-party voting is allowed in several states where Obama has poured in money and campaign workers: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
{mosads}In Nevada, Democratic voter registration has increased by 124,000, or more than 30 percent, since January. Republican registration has increased by 34,000, or about 9 percent, since the first of the year.
That could pose a major problem for Rep. Jon Porter (R-Nev.), who squeaked into office with 49 percent of the vote in 2006 and now faces a stiff challenge from Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus.
Since the beginning of the year, the number of registered Democrats in his district has shot up nearly 50,000. The number of Republicans, however, increased by 18,000, according to data compiled by Nevada’s secretary of state.
“I think it will have a tremendous effect,” said Paul Kincaid, spokesman for the Nevada Democratic Party.
Democrats also enjoy a dramatic advantage in voter registration in New Mexico, which has an open Senate seat and three open House seats. Democrats increased party registration in the state by 55,000 since 2006. Republicans, meanwhile, increased their numbers by 16,000.
Democrats have a significant registration advantage in New Mexico’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts, which were held by Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, respectively, in the 110th Congress.
Democratic candidates are poised to capture both seats. Republicans in Washington have written off their chances in the 2nd, where candidate Ed Tinsley has decided to pull his ads off the air during the final days of the campaign, even though President Bush carried the district with 58 percent of the vote in 2004.
Timothy Krebs, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico, said that new voters would most likely pull the lever for a straight-party vote to save time after standing in line to vote.
“I think there could be a coattail effect,” said Krebs, who noted that Democratic candidates Martin Heinrich and Harry Teague are leading in the polls in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts, traditionally Republican territory. The 3rd district, held by Rep.-turned-Senate candidate Tom Udall (D), is expected to stay in Democratic hands.
Obama has also made a concerted effort to register voters in North Carolina, where 21 percent of residents are African-American.
Democratic registration has jumped nearly 300,000, while Republican registration has increased by about 70,000. Voters in North Carolina are also allowed to vote straight-ticket on down-ballot races, although they must vote separately for the presidential candidates.
“The number of new registered voters and number of new Democrats in North Carolina has to bode well for other Democratic candidates,” said Thomas Carsey, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
{mospagebreak}That could bode poorly for Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R), who finds herself trailing in the polls to Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan.
Sen. John Sununu (N.H.) is another vulnerable Republican who will have to contend with a spike in Democratic voter registration.
{mosads}The number of registered Democrats in the Granite State climbed by 35,000 since 2004 to reach 263,000 in August, according to the New Hampshire secretary of state. The number of Republicans grew by a thousand, to 268,000, during that same period.
In Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) has watched Democratic registrations increase by 88,000 since January.
Republicans have grown by 37,000 during that same period. As a result, there are now 240,000 more registered Democrats, reports Oregon’s secretary of state.
Several vulnerable House Republicans in Pennsylvania, such as Reps. Phil English and Jim Gerlach, also must contend with surging Democratic registration. Democratic registrations grew by 270,000 in Pennsylvania between mid-April and the end of October. There are now 4.5 million registered Democrats in the Keystone State compared to 3.2 million Republicans, according to Pennsylvania’s secretary of state.
In Erie County, all of which lies in English’s district, Democratic registration grew by over 5,000 between April and October. Republican registration grew by about 1,900.
Florida, the site of several competitive House races, has also seen a tsunami in Democratic voter registration.
Democrats have increased by 600 thousand voters since the beginning of 2008, according to the Florida’s secretary of state. Republicans have increased by about 200,000. As of Oct. 6, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 660,000 registered voters, 4.72 million to 4.06 million.
That spurt may not be enough to save Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney (Fla.), who recently admitted to an extramarital affair after paying his former mistress a large cash settlement. But it could help Democratic candidates running against vulnerable Republicans in other parts of the state, such as GOP Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Vern Buchanan.