State by State

Kentucky

Rep. Ron Lewis’s (R) seat might not be so safe after all.

Democrat David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie are virtually tied in their race to replace the retiring Lewis in Kentucky’s 2nd district, according to a new poll.

{mosads}A SurveyUSA poll conducted this past weekend showed Boswell leads Guthrie, 47 percent to 44.

Nine percent of voters said they are undecided.

Lewis has represented the district since winning a special election in 1994. Since then, Lewis has never received less than 55 percent of the vote.

— Michael O’Brien

Maine

State Democrats this week continued their uphill battle to keep an Independent Senate candidate off the ballot.

The fight over Herb Hoffman’s candidacy for Senate now travels to the Maine Superior Court, after the Maine Democratic Party announced Monday that it would appeal a ruling that confirmed Hoffman’s spot on the ballot with incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) and challenger Rep. Tom Allen (D).

Last week, Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap upheld his office’s earlier finding that Hoffman had collected the 4,000 signatures required to guarantee a place on the ballot.

But the Democrats’ challenge alleged that Hoffman had collected some signatures twice and falsely claimed to witness signatures collected by others.

“It’s apparent that Tom Allen has gone from concerned to desperate,” said state GOP spokesman Jen Webber.

Even though Hoffman is a former Democrat, the Allen campaign said it did not think his candidacy would have a significant impact on the race.

“We feel really good about where we are,” said spokeswoman Carol Andrews.

— Joey Michalakes

New Jersey

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) appears to have a sizable advantage over former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R), leading 45 percent to 28 in a Fairleigh-Dickinson poll released last week.

The poll was conducted between June 17 and 22 and had a margin of error of 4 percent. Just more than a quarter of voters were undecided.

Equally ominous for Zimmer were poor name identification numbers, with 44 percent of voters polled saying they had never heard of him.

Zimmer ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 1996 against then-Rep. Robert Torricelli. Of those who had heard of him, 29 percent of voters said they had no opinion of him.

Zimmer spokesman Mark Duffy said the poll shows Lautenberg’s vulnerability, though. Despite easily weathering a primary challenge from Rep. Robert Andrews (D) a month ago, questions remain about the senator’s age. Lautenberg is 84.

“This poll and other polls show that voters want change,” Duffy said. “After 24 years in office, Lautenberg is below 50 percent.”

— M.O.

New York

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) waded into another primary on Monday, endorsing Iraq veteran Jon Powers in the race to replace Rep. Tom Reynolds (R).

Powers faces well-funded opponents in attorney Alice Kryzan and businessman Jack Davis.

Davis, a noted self-funder who has lost to Reynolds the last two cycles, last week won a case before the Supreme Court seeking to overturn the Millionaire’s Amendment, a provision that allows opponents of self-funders to raise money with higher per-donor limits.

The law could have helped Powers raise more money once Davis put enough money into his campaign.

Davis only lost to Reynolds by four percentage points in 2006.

The DCCC said the decision was based on the fact that Powers has been the pre-eminent choice of several major unions and members of New York’s congressional delegation.

Kryzan spokesman Mike Alfoni said: “We would be happy to comment, but we’re too busy raising money.”

The primary is set for Sept. 9. The winner will likely face Republican businessman Chris Lee.

The DCCC has a policy of publicly staying out of primaries, but it has strayed from that in recent weeks, adding two other candidates facing tough primaries to its Red to Blue program.

— Aaron Blake
 

Pennsylvania

The campaign of businessman Bob Roggio (D) went public with a poll this week to prove that it has a chance against Rep. Jim Gerlach (R). The poll comes a little over a week after the Gerlach campaign released a poll showing its candidate holding a 26-percentage-point lead.

The latest poll showed Gerlach ahead, 49 percent to 32, on the first ballot. But the Roggio campaign highlighted the incumbent’s net negative job approval rating and emphasized that after participants read a bio of Roggio prepared by the campaign, Roggio held a 45 percent to 38 percent lead.

The Gerlach campaign was skeptical of the results, saying that the “informed ballot” amounted to little more than a push-poll.

“After we’ve tested our issues against Roggio’s, it’s no longer close,” said Gerlach spokesman Mark Campbell. “Roggio makes [2006 challenger] Lois Murphy look like a moderate.”

— J.M.

Tennessee

Rep. David Davis (R-Tenn.) received an endorsement from the National Rifle Association (NRA) over challenger Phil Roe (R) last week.

Roe, who served in Korea and is also an NRA member, said the endorsement is just another inherent advantage incumbents have in elections: “I still have and will always respect the work of the NRA.”

Davis won a crowded primary with 22 percent of the vote in 2006, but this year he faces only Roe.

The primary is set for Aug. 7.

— David Matthews